Trading Analysis – 2nd September 2020

Today’s Market Outlook

U.S. and European stock-index futures rose Wednesday, while Asian equity markets were mixed as investors assessed valuations with global shares at a record high. Emerging-market currencies weakened, and Australia confirmed it is in its first recession in 29 years. 

Stocks in Japan and South Korea posted modest gains, while China, Hong Kong and India edged lower. S&P 500 futures rose after a climb in Apple Inc. again pulled the benchmark to an all-time high. Euro Stoxx 50 contracts also advanced. 

The dollar was steady, having erased overnight losses as data showed U.S. manufacturing expanded last month at the fastest pace since 2018. The euro edged further down from $1.20, a level it breached for the first time in over two years Tuesday. Treasury yields ticked up.  

The Aussie dropped after a worse-than-expected reading on second-quarter growth.  Data showed Australia’s economy shrank 7% in the second quarter, after slipping 0.3% in the previous quarter, marking its first back-to-back periods of contraction — the widely recognized signifier of recession — since 1991. The massive downturn, caused by coronavirus-related shutdowns, has been softened by record fiscal stimulus to keep businesses open and workers paid. 

Global stocks are continuing to grind higher as investors anticipate more support from policy makers, with last week’s announcement from the Federal Reserve that the central bank will maintain an easy-money policy adding fuel to the trade. The U.S. manufacturing expansion on Tuesday came after Chinese factory data signalled rising global demand for exports, a sign the world economy is recovering from the pandemic. 

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.75% and Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.39% closed at new records as encouraging economic data and dovish statements from the Fed fuelled buying; tech stocks especially benefited. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.75% also rose slightly. 

Benchmark U.S. crude CLV20, +0.84% added 36 cents to $43.12 a barrel. It rose 15 cents to $42.76 a barrel on Tuesday. Brent crude BRNX20, +0.79% , the international standard, gained 38 cents to $45.96 a barrel. 

The U.S. dollar USDJPY, +0.08% inched up to 106.07 Japanese yen from 105.97 yen. 

Today’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT+3.

15.15 – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USA) 

Potential instruments to trade: USD Crosses & impacts Gold’s movements too. 

16.00 – BoE Governor Bailey Speech (UK) 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.

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