Asian shares got off to a cautious start on Monday as a jump in oil prices to three-year highs could inflame inflation fears and aggravate the recent hawkish turn by some major central banks. Oil pushed past its July peaks as global output disruptions forced energy companies to pull large amounts of crude out of inventories, while a shortage of natural gas in Europe pushed costs up across the continent.
For the US, Core durable goods orders for August kicks things off on Monday. The focus will then shift to consumer confidence figures on Tuesday. We have seen market sensitivity to consumer confidence heightened in recent months. On Thursday, the focus will then shift to final GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter and weekly jobless claims. Barring a marked revision to the GDP numbers, expect the jobless claims to be key. At the end of the week, inflation, personal spending, and ISM Manufacturing PMI figures will also influence. On the monetary policy front, we will expect increased sensitivity to FOMC member chatter in the week. FED Chair Powell and several FOMC members are scheduled to speak in the week.
For Europe, inflation is still a key area of interest, prelim member state and Eurozone inflation figures will also influence in the week. On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is also scheduled to speak in the week. Expect any chatter on the economic outlook or monetary policy to move the dial.
BoE Governor Bailey is due to speak on Wednesday. Following the BoE’s hawkish guidance last week, there will be plenty of interest in the Governor’s speech so be ready and watch the GBP during this event.
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