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• The Week Ahead: 26th February – 1st March 2024

The Week Ahead: 26th February – 1st March 2024

Overview for the Week Ahead 

Highlights of the Week 

• US consumer confidence and inflation to influence bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut. 
• Market bets on an April ECB rate cut in the hands of member states and Eurozone inflation reports. 
• China, the Bank of Japan, the RBA, and the RBNZ will also be in the spotlight. 

US housing sector data kickstarts the week for the US dollar. New home sales and building permits will draw investor interest on Monday. An unexpected slump in permits and sales could spook investors. Economists consider the housing sector a litmus test of the US economy. 

On Tuesday, consumer confidence numbers for February will need consideration. A pickup in consumer confidence could signal a positive outlook for consumer spending and inflation. Other stats include durable goods orders and house price data. However, the CB Consumer Confidence Index will have more impact. 

On Thursday, Core PCE Price Index and personal income/spending figures will influence bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut. Persistent inflation and rising income/spending trends may delay a rate cut until H2 2024. 

On Tuesday, German consumer confidence numbers for March will put the EUR/USD in focus. Recent consumer confidence reports highlighted a grim outlook for spending. An unexpected fall in confidence could signal a prolonged economic recession. 

On Wednesday, the RBNZ will put the Kiwi dollar in the spotlight. Economists expect the RBNZ to leave the cash rate at 5.50%. Unless there is a surprise policy move, the Rate Statement and Press Conference need consideration. 

Private sector PMI numbers from China will also warrant investor attention on Friday. A pickup in manufacturing sector activity would be a boon for riskier assets and commodity currencies. 

On Friday, private sector PMI numbers for February warrant investor attention. Recent economic data from China has sent mixed signals. However, a pickup in private sector activity could fuel demand for riskier assets. 

The all-important Caixin Manufacturing PMI will likely have more impact. 

Have your trading charts ready this week! 

This Week’s High Impact Events 

The times below are GMT +2. 

Monday 26^th February 

• 18.00 – Europe – ECB President Lagarde Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.  

Tuesday 27^th February 

• 15.30 – US – Durable Goods Orders m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

• 17.00 – US – CB Consumer Confidence 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Wednesday 28^th February 

• 02.30 – Australia – CPI y/y 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.  

• 03.00 – New Zealand – Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, RBNZ Rate Statement 

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses.  

• 15.30 – US – Prelim GDP q/q 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Thursday 29^th February 

• All-Day – Europe – German Prelim CPI m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.  

• 15.30 – Canada – GDP m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

• 15.30 – US – Unemployment Claims, Core PCE Price Index m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Friday 1^st March 

• 03.30 – China – Manufacturing PMI 

Potential instruments to Trade: CNY Crosses.  

• 17.00 – US – ISM Manufacturing PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

If you have any questions or require any assistance, please contact one of our support team members via our Live Chat or email [email protected].

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