The Week Ahead: 26th – 30th April 2021

Overview for the Week Ahead

India’s new coronavirus infections hit a record peak for a fifth day on Monday as countries including Britain, Germany and the United States pledged to send urgent medical aid to fight the crisis overwhelming its hospitals. 

Infections in the past 24 hours rose to 352,991, with overcrowded hospitals in Delhi and elsewhere turning away patients after running out of supplies of medical oxygen and beds. 

With this in mind, the Indian market is likely to open on a flat note on Monday. 

For the US, durable goods and core durable goods orders along with consumer confidence figures are due out early in the week. 

Expect core durable goods and the consumer confidence index figures to have the greatest influence on the USD. 

On Thursday, the focus will shift to 1st quarter US GDP and jobless claims figures. 

While the jobless claims figures will influence, expect the GDP numbers to be key on the day. 

At the end of the week, personal spending and the FED’s preferred Core PCE Price index figures will be in focus. 

On the monetary policy front, the FED is also in action on Wednesday. With the markets expecting the FED to stand put on policy, the rate statement will be the main area of focus. 

The earnings parade rolls on this week as dozens of names including Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, Ford, Starbucks and Boeing are set to report quarterly results. 

OPEC+ will meet on Wednesday following the group’s decision to begin easing oil production cuts of about 7 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia reportedly said it was phasing out its extra voluntary cuts by July, a move that will add 1 million bpd over the next three months. 

President Joe Biden will also address a joint session of Congress for the first time since taking office marking his first 100 days. 

U.S and China and U.S and Russia are the main areas of focus in the week ahead. 

The markets will also need to monitor any chatter from Iran, however. Progress towards a nuclear agreement would be a market positive outcome. 

German business sentiment and consumer confidence figures get Europe started this week with both sets of numbers to influence the EUR. 

On Thursday, the German economy is back in focus, with unemployment figures due out. 

With concerns over the German economic outlook lingering, expect any jump in unemployment to test the EUR. 

At the end of the week, 1st quarter GDP figures for the Eurozone and member states will also be in focus. 

For Canada, February retail sales figures will provide the Loonie with direction. 

At the end of the week, February GDP and March RMPI numbers will also influence. 

Away from the economic calendar, expect GDP numbers from the U.S and beyond and crude oil prices to also provide direction. 

For Australia, 1st quarter inflation figures are due out on Wednesday and Friday. 

Expect Aussie Dollar sensitivity to the numbers. 

For the Kiwi Dollar, the markets will need to wait until Thursday for March trade data and April business confidence figures. 

For Japan this week, it’s a busy week.  On Wednesday, retail sales figures will draw attention. Consumer spending remains key to an economic recovery. In February, retail sales had fallen by 1.5%. 

The focus will then shift to a busy Friday. March inflation and industrial production figures will be in focus. 

Expect prelim industrial production figures for March to have the greatest impact. 

On the monetary policy front, the BoJ is also in action this week. 

This Week’s High Impact Events 

The times below are GMT+3.

Monday 26th April 

  • No High Impact Events Today 

Tuesday 27th April  

  • Tentative – Japan – BOJ Outlook Report, BOJ Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement & BOJ Press Conference 

Potential instruments to Trade: JPY Crosses. 

  • 17.00 – US  CB Consumer Confidence  

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 23.00 – Canada – BOC Gov. Macklem Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

Wednesday 28th April 

  • 04.30 – Australia  CPI q/q, Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

  • Tentative  OPEC – JMMC Meetings 

Potential instruments to Trade: All currencies & Energy market. 

  • 15.30 – Canada  Core Retail & Retails Sales 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

  • 17.00 – Europe  ECB President Lagarde Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.  

  • 17.30 – US  Crude Oil Inventories 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses & Oil.  

  • 21.00 – US  FOMC Statement & Federal Funds Rate  

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 21.30 – US  FOMC Press Conference  

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses & Gold.  

Thursday 29th April 

  • 15.30 – US – Advanced GDP q/q, Advanced GDP Price Index q/q, & Unemployment Claims 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 17.00 – US – Pending Home Sales m/m  

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Friday 30th April 

  • 04.00 – China  Manufacturing PMI 

Potential instruments to Trade: CNY Crosses. 

  • 11.00 – Switzerland – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: CHF Crosses. 

  • 11.00 – Europe – German & Italian Prelim GDP q/q 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

  • 15.30 – Canada – GDP m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses. 

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