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The Week Ahead: 22nd – 26th February 2021

Overview for the Week Ahead

This week starts slowly with not much happening on Monday however from Tuesday, 51 stats come into focus. 

Investors this week are gearing up to hear from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in his semi-annual monetary policy testimony before Congress and to receive a set of corporate earnings results from Airbnb and DoorDash —two newly public companies. 

Powell’s testimony will take place Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee and on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee. 

Powell may also use his testimony to reiterate his call for additional fiscal support from Congress to augment the support offered through the Fed’s policies. During Powell’s last FOMC press conference in late January, he characterized fiscal support as “absolutely essential” to the economic recovery, while declining to offer an assessment of how much additional aid might be appropriate out of Congress. 

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down by 0.13% to 90.364

For Europe, it is a quieter week ahead.  In the 1st half of the week, German business confidence figures for February are due out. Expect the headline IFO Business Climate Index to be the key driver. 

On Wednesday and Thursday, the German economy remains in focus. 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 4th quarter and March consumer sentiment figures will draw attention. 

Barring revisions to GDP numbers, expect the consumer sentiment figures to have the greatest influence. 

At the end of the week, French consumer spending and 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 4th quarter will wrap things up. 

The EUR ended the week up by 0.01% to $1.2119

For the UK this week, December’s unemployment rate and January claimant count figures will be the key drivers.  Away from the stats, expect the UK government’s progress on vaccines and COVID-19 news to continue to influence. 

The Pound ended the week up by 1.21% to $1.4016

For Australia, its another relatively quiet week.  Expect CAPEX and private sector credit figures to have the greatest influence in the week 

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 1.30% to $0.7869

For New Zealand, it is a busy week ahead.  The main event of the week will be the RBNZ monetary policy decision on Wednesday.  After the RBA’s surprise move earlier in the month, will the RBNZ catch the markets off guard? 

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 1.05% to $0.7299. 

For China, it is another quiet week ahead. 

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up by 0.01% to CNY6.4577 against the U.S Dollar. 

For Japan, February inflation and January industrial production and retail sales figures are in focus on Friday.  Expect the industry production and retail sales figures to have the greatest impact on the markets. 

Ultimately, however, the numbers are unlikely to have too much impact on the Yen. 

The Japanese Yen ended the week down by 0.49% to ¥105.45 against the U.S Dollar. 

This Week’s High Impact Events 

The times below are GMT+2. 

Monday 22nd February 

  • 23.45 – New Zealand – Retail & Core Retail Sales q/q 

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses.  

Tuesday 23rd February 

  • Japan – Bank Holiday 
  • 09.00  UK – Claimant Count Change 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

  • 17.00 – US – Fed Chair Powell Testifies & CB Consumer Confidence 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 19.30 – Canada – BOC Gov Macklem Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

Wednesday 24th February  

  • 03.00 – New Zealand  RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement & Rate Statement & Official Cash Rate 

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses. 

  • 17.00 – US  Fed Chair Powell Testifies 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 17.30 – US  Crude Oil Inventories  

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Thursday 25th February 

  • 02.00 – New Zealand – Final ANZ Business Confidence 

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses.  

  • 02.30 – Australia – Private Capital Expenditure q/q 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.  

  • 15.30 – US – Prelim GDP q/q 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Friday 26th February 

  • 10.00 – Switzerland  KOF Economic Barometer 

Potential instruments to Trade: CHF Crosses.  

  • 16.45 – US – Chicago PMI 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

G20 Meetings 

  • All-Day – G20 Meetings 

Friday 26th & Saturday 27th February 

1st Finance Ministers and Central Banks Governors Meeting 

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