Oil prices shed as much as $4 a barrel on Monday, extending last week’s decline as diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine geared up and markets braced for higher U.S. interest rates.
Ukrainian and Russian negotiators are set to talk again on Monday via video link after both sides cited progress.
Negotiators had given their most upbeat assessments after weekend negotiations, suggesting there could be positive results within days.
The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 15-16 to decide whether or not to raise interest rates.
U.S. consumer prices had surged in February, leading to its largest annual increase in inflation in 40 years, and is set to accelerate further as Russia’s war against Ukraine drives up the costs of crude oil and other commodities.
The Federal Reserve is expected to start raising rates this week, which would put downward pressure on oil prices. Oil prices typically move inversely to the U.S. dollar, with a stronger greenback making commodities more expensive for foreign currency holders.
Traders will get another snapshot of the U.S. inflation picture this week from the Producer Price Index (PPI) due out Tuesday. The latest print on PPI, which like CPI serves as a gauge of changes in prices of goods and services but from the viewpoint of product-makers rather than consumers, is expected to show another red-hot figure as inflationary pressures and supply-chain snafus persist. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a PPI, excluding food and energy, read of 8.7% for February, up from the already higher-than-expected 8.3% last month.
Meanwhile on Wednesday, consensus economists are expecting to see retail sales excluding autos, released by the U.S. Census Bureau, to rise in February by 0.9% compared to January’s increase of 1.0%, according to Bloomberg data. Bank of America attributes the gain to spending on gas and food services. The institution anticipates, however, core control sales, which excludes gas, autos, building materials and food services, to fall by 0.5% month-over-month.
Have your trading chart ready!
This Week’s High Impact Events
The times below are GMT +2.
Monday 14th March
No High Impact Events
Tuesday 15th March
02.30 – AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.
14.30 – US – PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, & Empire State Manufacturing Index
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