Overview for the Week Ahead

The dollar made a steady start to the week in Asia on Monday but stayed below Friday peaks, as currency traders seek a path between markets’ volatile rate projections and central bankers vowing a wait-and-see approach despite surging inflation. The next big test of faith in the Federal Reserve’s insistence on patience looms on Wednesday when U.S. inflation data is expected to show consumer growth running hot.

U.S. consumer prices on Wednesday are expected to show price pressures running at the hottest pace in three decades amid supply-chain bottlenecks and higher energy, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

The October and November CPI numbers “are super important considerations to which way the Fed is going to go,” Mahjabeen Zaman, senior investment specialist at Citigroup, said on Bloomberg Radio. “We are of the view that there is upside risk in both these CPI numbers and as a result, there is actually a risk the Fed might actually accelerate the pace of asset purchases.”

Further on the economic front, China posted a record monthly trade surplus in October as exports surged, underscoring support for the Chinese economy that’s slowed sharply in recent months. In the U.S., the House on Friday passed the biggest U.S. infrastructure package in decades.

Elsewhere, oil advanced as traders weighed the odds of a release of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve after OPEC+ resisted a plea from President Joe Biden to boost supplies more quickly. Bitcoin is trading around $66,000.

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +2.

Monday 8^th November

• 16.00 – US – FOMC Member Clarida Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

• 17.30 – US – Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

• 19.00 – UK – BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

• 19.00 – US – FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

• 20.50 – US – FOMC Member Evans Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Tuesday 9^th November

• 12.00 – EUR – ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

• 15.30 – US – PPI m/m & Core PPI

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

• 16.00 – US – Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

• 18.00 – UK – BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

• 20.01 – US – 10-Year Bond-Auction

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Wednesday 10^th November

• 12.45 – Canada – BoC Gov. Macklem Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.

• 15.30 – US – CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, & Unemployment Claims

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

• 17.30 – US – Crude Oil Inventories

Potential instruments to Trade: USD & CAD Crosses.

• 20.01 – US – 30-Year Bond-Auction

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

• 23.45 – New Zealand – FPI m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses. 

Thursday 11^th November

• 02.30 – Australia – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.

• 09.00 – GBP – Prelim GDP q/q

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.

• 12.00 – Europe – EU Economic Forecasts

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.

• 19.30 – Switzerland – Gov. Board Member Maechler Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: CHF Crosses.

Friday 12^th November

• 17.00 – US – JOLTS Job Openings & Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

• 19.10 – US – FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

Saturday 13^th November

• US – Treasury Currency Report

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

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