Overview for the Week Ahead

Asian shares edged up on Monday as a U.S. holiday (Presidents’ Day) made for slow trading ahead of minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting and a reading on core inflation that could add to the risk of interest rates heading higher for longer.

Geopolitical tensions were ever present with North Korea firing more missiles and talk of Russia ramping up attacks in Ukraine before Friday’s one-year anniversary of the invasion.

In Europe, money markets show that investors are already betting on a peak European Central Bank rate around 3.75% by late summer, up from levels around 3.4% earlier this month.

Investors are unwinding earlier bets after a string of hawkish comments from policymakers, forcing European shares to retreat further from one-year highs.

ECB officials have highlighted their fears about stubborn underlying inflation.

The central bank raised rates by 50 basis points this month and pre-announced another increase of the same size for March 16, but it kept an open mind about future moves, with most policymakers expecting another rate hike in May.

Stand-out items on this week’s economic calendar include the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, earnings reports from big U.S. retailers, global flash PMIs, and inflation readings from the euro zone and Japan.

Have your trading charts ready!

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +2.

Monday 20^th February

No High Impact Events

Tuesday 21^st February

• 02.30 – Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

• From 10.15 – Europe – French & & German Manufacturing & Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

• 11.30 – UK – Flash Manufacturing PMI & Flash Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

• 12.00 – Europe – German ZEW Economic Sentiment

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

• 15.30 – Canada – CPI m/m, CPI y/y, Core Retails Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses. 

• 15.45 – US – Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Wednesday 22^nd February

• 02.30 – Australia – Wage Price Index q/q

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

• 03.00 – New Zealand – Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, RBNZ Rate Statement

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses. 

• 04.00 – New Zealand – RBNZ Press Conference

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses. 

• 11.00 – Europe – German ifo Business Climate

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

• Day 1 – G20 Meetings

Potential instruments to Trade: All Crosses. 

• 21.00 – US – FOMC Meeting Minutes

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Thursday 23^rd February

• 15.30 – US – Prelim GDP q/q

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

• Day 2 – G20 Meetings

Potential instruments to Trade: All Crosses. 

Friday 24^th February

• Tentative – Japan – BOJ Gov – Designate Ueda Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: JPY Crosses. 

• 15.30 – US – Core PCE Price Index m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

• 17.00 – US – New Home Sales, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

• Day 3 – G20 Meetings

Potential instruments to Trade: All Crosses. 

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