Errante’s The Week Ahead: 29^th September – 3^rd October 2025 

Highlights of the Week 

• US Labor Market in Focus: September Nonfarm Payrolls expected at +39K with unemployment steady at 4.3%; markets will weigh weak job growth against wage resilience. 

• Eurozone Inflation Test: German CPI and Eurozone CPI prints will shape ECB expectations as policymakers balance slower growth with sticky inflation. 

• UK Growth Pulse: Q2 GDP release expected softer at 0.3% QoQ; pound traders will watch whether growth downgrades shift BoE’s cautious stance. 

Errante’s The Week Ahead: 29^th September – 3^rd October 2025

Markets enter the week at a delicate juncture: US GDP growth was revised sharply higher to 3.8% annualized in Q2, underscoring resilience in consumer and business spending, yet labor market data remain weak with August NFP barely positive. This divergence creates a challenging policy backdrop for the Federal Reserve. Policymakers have cut rates by 25bps already, but whether they follow through with further easing will depend heavily on Friday’s payrolls and wage data. A sub-50K print would reinforce the narrative of labor market cooling, strengthening the case for another cut before year-end, while resilient earnings growth would complicate the inflation fight. 

For the ECB, September CPI is expected to rise to 2.3% YoY, highlighting that disinflation has stalled. Any upside surprise, particularly from core inflation, would push back against imminent rate cut bets. The Euro’s recent strength reflects this shift, as traders see Europe’s inflation trajectory as more stubborn than previously assumed. German CPI on Tuesday will set the tone ahead of the Eurozone print Wednesday. 

In the UK, GDP data are forecast to show slowing momentum, with YoY growth dipping to 1.2% from 1.3%. Combined with stubborn services inflation, the BoE remains in a bind: growth is fading, but inflation is not yet back at target. This creates volatility risk in GBP crosses, particularly against the EUR. 

On commodities, oil remains supported above $69 per barrel amid geopolitical risk and US pressure on Russian exports. A tighter physical market from renewed sanctions and Middle East flows keeps upside risks alive, though inventory builds could limit rallies. Gold and silver trade near record highs, with Fed policy expectations the key driver: weaker US jobs data would revive safe-haven flows and support the metals, while stronger prints could trigger profit-taking. 

In short, next week’s mix of inflation and jobs data across the US, UK, and Eurozone will likely reset expectations for Q4 policy moves. The US dollar remains vulnerable to softer labor data, while EUR and GBP may see relative support if inflation readings surprise to the upside. 

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3) 

Monday, 29^th September 29 2025 

• No high-impact events scheduled. 

Tuesday, 30^th September 2025 

• 04:30 – CNY – Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Gauge of Chinese factory activity; expected to hold near contraction zone at 49.6. 

• 07:30 – AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Sep): Policy on hold at 3.60%, but tone on global slowdown and China exposure will matter for AUD. 

• 09:00 – GBP – GDP (YoY/QoQ) (Q2): UK growth slowdown in focus; weaker data could weigh on sterling. 

• 15:00 – EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Sep): Key prelude to Eurozone CPI; markets sensitive to any inflation surprise. 

• 16:45 – USD – Chicago PMI (Sep): Regional manufacturing sentiment; proxy for national trends. 

• 17:00 – USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Sep): Insight into household outlook; crucial given consumption drives 70% of US GDP. 

• 17:00 – USD – JOLTS Job Openings (Aug): Labor demand signal; recent declines watched as precursor to NFP trends. 

Wednesday, 1^st October 2025 

• 12:00 – EUR – CPI (YoY) (Sep): Core focus for ECB; expected at 2.3% YoY, testing policy patience. 

• 15:15 – USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep): Private payrolls preview for NFP; limited but directional insight. 

• 16:45 – USD – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Expected to slip, showing uneven sector recovery. 

• 17:00 – USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Key gauge of industrial activity; under 50 still signals contraction. 

• 17:00 – USD – ISM Manufacturing Prices (Sep): Inflationary pressure tracker for goods sector. 

• 17:30 – USD – Crude Oil Inventories: Weekly stockpile shifts; supply-demand balance indicator for oil markets. 

Thursday, 2^nd October 2025 

• 15:30 – USD – Initial Jobless Claims: Ongoing signal of labor market strength/weakness. 

Friday, 3^rd October 2025 

• 15:30 – USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep): Wage growth critical for inflation trends. 

• 15:30 – USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep): Key data point of the week; forecast at +39K. 

• 15:30 – USD – Unemployment Rate (Sep): Expected steady at 4.3%; confirmation of slack in labor market. 

• 16:45 – USD – S&P Global Services PMI (Sep): Vital as services remain resilient driver of US economy. 

• 17:00 – USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Key read on services momentum; above 50 expansions, below contraction. 

• 17:00 – USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Sep): Input price pressures for the largest sector of US GDP. 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

USDCAD – Daily Chart  

Current Trend & Momentum: 

USDCAD has decisively broken above its multi-month descending trendline, signaling the end of a prolonged downtrend since early 2025. Price is trading at 1.3950, firmly above the 34-day WMA (1.3773) and hugging the upper Bollinger Band. Momentum indicators confirm the bullish shift: 

• MACD has crossed into positive territory with widening histogram bars, validating bullish momentum. 

• Money Flow Index (MFI) at 63 shows steady inflows without yet entering overbought extremes. 

• ATR is ticking higher, indicating rising volatility to accompany the breakout. 

Main Scenario (Bullish Continuation): 

A sustained daily close above 1.3935 (127.2% Fib extension) opens the door toward 1.3998 – 1.4050 (161.8%–200% extensions). Beyond that, the medium-term projection aligns with 1.4110 (241% Fib), which coincides with previous structural resistance from March. 

Key Levels to Watch: 

• Support: 1.3935 (broken Fib extension/now support), 1.3827 (61.8% Fib retracement), 1.3726 (swing low). 

• Resistance: 1.3998, 1.4051, and 1.4110. 

Alternative Scenario: 

If price falls back below 1.3880, it would suggest a false breakout, re-exposing 1.3827 and potentially 1.3726. This would require renewed CAD strength, likely from oil’s recovery or stronger Canadian data. 

Bias: Bullish above 1.3880; pullbacks are corrective unless 1.3827 breaks. 

EURGBP – Daily Chart 

Current Trend & Momentum: 

EURGBP remains in a gradual ascending channel since Q1, supported by a rising trendline from November 2024 lows. Current price trades at 0.8740, testing the 127.2% Fib extension at 0.8734. Technical conditions show a constructive but cautious picture: 

• Price remains above the 34-day WMA (0.8686) and mid-Bollinger line, confirming an intact uptrend. 

• MACD has made a fresh bullish crossover above zero, supporting upward momentum. 

• MFI sits at 56, neutral but rising — scope for more buying pressure before overbought levels. 

Main Scenario (Continuation Higher): 

A daily close above 0.8745 (current resistance cluster) would confirm bullish breakout potential toward 0.8762 (161.8% Fib) and ultimately 0.8793 (200% Fib projection). 

Key Levels to Watch: 

• Support: 0.8712 (Fib + recent swing low), 0.8681 (61.8% Fib retracement), 0.8632 (major trendline support). 

• Resistance: 0.8745, 0.8762, and 0.8793. 

Alternative Scenario: 

Failure to hold above 0.8712 would shift focus back to 0.8681 trendline support. A decisive break below that would invalidate the bullish structure and expose 0.8632. 

Bias: Constructively bullish while above 0.8680, but momentum requires a firm break above 0.8745 to confirm. 

Errante’s Weekly Newsletter brings you critical market insights to keep you ahead in the financial world. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with Errante. 

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