Highlights of the week 

• US CPI is the main market trigger. 
• PPI and retail sales test the inflation-growth mix. 
• UK GDP and German sentiment shape Europe’s tone. 

What Now 

This week is about whether inflation stays sticky enough to dominate again, or whether growth starts to slow fast enough to challenge that view.  

Monday is mostly a setup day, with China inflation and US existing home sales offering only an early read on demand. The real focus starts Tuesday with Australian confidence, German ZEW, and especially US CPI. If US inflation stays hot and core firms, yields and the dollar should stay supported and rate cuts may be pushed further out. If core remains contained, markets may get some relief, though high energy prices could limit it. 

Wednesday’s PPI will show whether producer-side inflation is still firm. Thursday then tests growth through UK GDP and US retail sales. If spending remains strong after sticky CPI and PPI, the higher-for-longer rates view strengthens. If growth data weaken clearly, markets may start to weigh slowing demand more seriously. 

Overall, the bias still favors relative dollar resilience, with the US better placed on energy than Europe and the UK, which remain more exposed to a stagflationary mix. 

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3) 

Monday, May 11, 2026 

• 04:30 – China (CNY) – Inflation Rate YoY, previous 1.0 percent 

• 17:00 – United States (USD) – Existing Home Sales, previous 3.98 million 

Tuesday, May 12, 2026 

• 03:30 – Australia (AUD) – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change, previous minus 12.5 percent 

• 04:30 – Australia (AUD) – NAB Business Confidence, previous minus 29 

• 12:00 – Germany (EUR) – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, previous minus 17.2 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Core Inflation Rate MoM, previous 0.2 percent 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Core Inflation Rate YoY, previous 2.6 percent 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Inflation Rate MoM, previous 0.9 percent 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Inflation Rate YoY, previous 3.3 percent 

Wednesday, May 13, 2026 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – PPI MoM, previous 0.5 percent 

Thursday, May 14, 2026 

• 09:00 – United Kingdom (GBP) – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Preliminary, previous 0.1 percent 

• 09:00 – United Kingdom (GBP) – GDP Growth Rate YoY Preliminary, previous 1.0 percent 

• 09:00 – United Kingdom (GBP) – GDP MoM, previous 0.5 percent 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Retail Sales MoM, previous 1.7 percent 

Friday, May 15, 2026 

• No high impact event