Highlights of the week 

• US retail sales lead the week. 
• UK inflation is the key sterling test. 
• PMIs and confidence data shape Europe’s tone. 

What Now 

This is a concentrated macro week, with several releases that can quickly shape rate expectations and currency direction. The main issue is whether incoming data keep inflation concerns alive or start to shift the market’s focus more decisively toward slowing growth. 

Monday begins with Canada CPI. It may not drive the whole market, but it will matter for CAD because inflation is still the main variable shaping rate expectations. A firmer print would support the currency through a less dovish policy path, while a softer one would leave CAD more vulnerable. 

Tuesday is the first important global session. Japan trade, UK unemployment, German ZEW, and US retail sales all land on the same day. The most important of those is US retail sales. The prior reading was 0.6 percent, so markets will want to know whether the US consumer is still holding up. If sales stay firm, the dollar should remain supported because stronger demand would help keep yields elevated. If sales disappoint clearly, markets may start to question how much momentum the US economy still has. 

Wednesday shifts attention to the UK. Inflation was last at 3.0 percent year on year, which is still uncomfortably high for the Bank of England. That makes CPI the key sterling event of the week. Sticky inflation could support GBP through higher rate expectations, while a softer print would weaken that support quickly. 

Thursday and Friday are more about confirming the broader direction. Germany and UK flash PMIs, Japan CPI, UK retail sales, and Germany’s Ifo survey will show whether Europe and Japan are coping with the current environment or slipping further into weaker activity. If confidence and activity keep fading while inflation stays firm, the market will continue to favor the dollar over Europe and the UK. That remains the clearest macro bias going into the week. 

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3) 

Monday, April 20, 2026 

• 15:30 – Canada (CAD) – Inflation Rate YoY, previous 1.8 percent 

Tuesday, April 21, 2026 

• 02:50 – Japan (JPY) – Balance of Trade, previous 57.3 billion yen 

• 09:00 – United Kingdom (GBP) – Unemployment Rate, previous 5.2 percent 

• 12:00 – Germany (EUR) – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, previous minus 0.5 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Retail Sales MoM, previous 0.6 percent 

Wednesday, April 22, 2026 

• 09:00 – United Kingdom (GBP) – Inflation Rate YoY, previous 3.0 percent 

Thursday, April 23, 2026 

• 10:30 – Germany (EUR) – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash, previous 52.2 

• 11:30 – United Kingdom (GBP) – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash, previous 51.0 

• 11:30 – United Kingdom (GBP) – S&P Global Services PMI Flash, previous 50.5 

Friday, April 24, 2026 

• 02:30 – Japan (JPY) – Inflation Rate YoY, previous 1.3 percent 

• 09:00 – United Kingdom (GBP) – Retail Sales MoM, previous minus 0.4 

• 11:00 – Germany (EUR) – Ifo Business Climate, previous 86.4