Errante The Week Ahead: 15th – 19th December 2025 

Highlights of the Week 

• “Data dump” week in the US: markets will trade the information gap, not just the numbers. 
  Because the federal shutdown disrupted normal releases, the key US macro prints are effectively being “reconstructed” into a tighter window into year-end. That compresses risk: one headline can reprice the whole front-end rate path (and by extension, the dollar and equity duration) faster than usual. 

• Europe: inflation prints are back in the driver’s seat for EUR/USD after the ECB’s “steady-rate” bias. 
  Euro area inflation has been ticking up modestly, and German YoY inflation was confirmed higher in November – so the next CPI updates matter because they determine whether “monthly disinflation comfort” remains intact or starts to look sticky again. 

• Central-bank week: BoE + ECB + BoJ = cross-currency repricing risk. 
  A rare cluster: BoE decision (GBP), ECB decision + presser (EUR), and BoJ decision (JPY) in the same week means relative rates can move even if the USD leg is quiet. (For scheduling reference: BoE MPC dates and BoJ meeting schedule are official.) 

Errante The Week Ahead: 15th – 19th December 2025 

The macro regime into this week is best described as “policy easing is no longer the story – policy confidence is.” The Fed has already delivered a cut and signaled a more cautious forward path, which means markets are now hypersensitive to whether incoming data validates a controlled slowdown or forces a renewed debate about inflation persistence. In that environment, the USD becomes less about “risk-off / risk-on” and more about “front-end re-pricing vs. global relative growth.” 

For US indices, the key is whether the upcoming US releases restore clarity or increase ambiguity. A catch-up data batch can move the market in both directions: (1) strong activity + sticky inflation can pressure equities via higher real yields; (2) softer activity + contained inflation can re-open the “soft-landing duration trade.” This is why Tuesday’s cluster (Retail Sales + NFP + unemployment + PMIs) matters more than usual: it can reset the entire December-to-Q1 narrative in one session. 

For the dollar, the tactical map is simple: DXY rallies are fragile unless US data forces the market to price fewer cuts (or a longer pause); otherwise, rallies tend to fade into resistance because the “policy differential” edge is less dominant after the Fed cut. At the same time, don’t underestimate the “information premium”: if the US data gap narrows and confidence rises, USD can stabilize even without higher yields – because uncertainty hedges unwind asymmetrically. 

For EUR, the week is about whether inflation confirms “managed disinflation” or reintroduces stickiness risk. Euro area inflation has already printed slightly firmer, and Germany’s inflation was confirmed higher in November – so another upside surprise can harden ECB rhetoric even if rates stay unchanged, which tends to support EUR on the crosses and compress downside in EURUSD. 

For gold, the key driver remains the real-rate impulse + USD trend. If US inflation signals (CPI/PCE) lean hot while growth stays resilient, gold can struggle as real yields rise; if the data batch hints at labor cooling and inflation stability, gold tends to regain its bid. The point for FX traders: gold is often the cleanest “macro referee” when equities are noisy – watch it as a confirmation tool, not a standalone trade engine. 

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+2) 

Monday, 15^th December 2025 

• No high impact event 

Tuesday, 16^th December 2025 

• 15:30 – USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov) – Previous: 0.2% 

• 15:30 – USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) – Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3% 

• 15:30 – USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) – Previous: 119K 

• 15:30 – USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) – Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2% 

• 15:30 – USD – Unemployment Rate (Nov) – Forecast: 4.4% | Previous: 4.4% 

• 16:45 – USD – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec) – Previous: 52.2 

• 16:45 – USD – S&P Global Services PMI (Dec) – Previous: 54.1 

Wednesday, 17^th December 2025 

• 09:00 – GBP – CPI (YoY) (Nov) – Previous: 3.6% 

• 12:00 – EUR – CPI (YoY) (Nov) – Forecast: 2.1% | Previous: 2.2% 

• 17:30 – USD – Crude Oil Inventories – Previous: -1.812M 

Thursday, 18^th December 2025 

• 14:00 – GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec) – Forecast: 4.00% | Previous: 3.75% 

• 15:15 – EUR – Deposit Facility Rate (Dec) – Forecast: 2.00% | Previous: 2.00% 

• 15:15 – EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec) – Forecast: 2.15% | Previous: 2.15% 

• 15:30 – USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) – Forecast: 0.2% 

• 15:30 – USD – CPI (MoM) (Nov) – Forecast: 0.3% 

• 15:30 – USD – CPI (YoY) (Nov) – Forecast: 3.0% 

• 15:30 – USD – Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast: 236K 

• 15:30 – USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) – Forecast: -1.7 

• 15:45 – EUR – ECB Press Conference 

Friday, 19^th December 2025 

• 05:00 – JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision – Previous: 0.50% 

• 15:30 – USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct) – Forecast: 0.2% 

• 15:30 – USD – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct) 

• 15:30 – USD – Existing Home Sales (Nov) – Forecast: 4.10M 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

EURUSD (Daily) 

EURUSD has shifted back into a constructive uptrend, reclaiming its moving-average “value zone” and pushing into upside extension levels. Momentum confirmation is improving; PPO is rising and ROC is firm, while BBW suggests the move has transitioned from compression into expansion – i.e., the market is no longer “coiling,” it’s moving. 

Main scenario (base case) 

As long as price holds above the 1.1653–1.1591 support band (the 100% ~ 1.16533 and 61.8% ~ 1.15912 area), pullbacks look like buyable dips rather than reversal attempts. In ICT language: that zone is the “reclaimed dealing range” where you expect demand to defend if the leg is real, not a stop-run. 
Upside targets are stacked at: 1.17537 (161.8%), then 1.18158 (200%), and 1.19162 (261.8%), with price currently around 1.17254, meaning the first extension is already being tested. 

Key levels (EURUSD) 

• Resistance: 1.17537, 1.18158, 1.19162 

• Support: 1.16975, 1.16533, 1.15912, 1.14908 

Alternative scenario (risk case) 

If EURUSD loses 1.15912 on a daily closing basis, the structure shifts from “trend continuation” to “failed breakout,” and the next magnet becomes 1.14908 (0% level). That would typically require either a hawkish inflation impulse in the US (CPI/PCE) or a dovish ECB read-through that undercuts rate support. 

US30 (Daily) 

US30 remains in a strong bull trend with price above key moving averages, and the market is operating in an extension zone above prior breakout structure. PPO remains positive and supportive; ROC is stable; but the important nuance is that late-cycle extension trades are more sensitive to data shocks (because positioning is complacent until it isn’t). 

Main scenario (base case) 

As long as US30 holds above the 49,162 (127.2%) / 48,424 (100%) zone, the uptrend remains the dominant regime. That zone is the “breakout retest” area, if defended, the next upside targets remain 50,102 (161.8%) and 51,140 (200%). 

Key levels (US30) 

• Resistance: 50,102, 51,140 

• Support: 49,162, 48,424, 47,386, 45,708 

Alternative scenario (risk case) 

A decisive daily break below 48,424 shifts the market from “trend continuation” to “distribution risk.” In that case, 47,386 (61.8%) becomes the first downside magnet, and a deeper risk-off push can pull price toward 45,708 (0%), especially if CPI/PCE surprise higher and real yields rise. 

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