US GDP for Q4 2022

US GDP for Q4 2022

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate of the fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday, January 26 at 15:30 GMT+2 as we get closer to the release time, here are forecasts from economists and researchers of ten major banks regarding the upcoming growth data. 

Economists expect the United States to report an annualised growth rate of 2.8% in the last quarter of 2022, slower than the 3.2% clip recorded in the three months ending in September. 

Markets are fearful of a US recession, so significantly worse data could cause volatility in the market, especially in the US stock market which would likely fall quickly.

In other news, the Bank of Canada raised rates by 0.25% yesterday to 4.50%, putting its rate as the joint highest of all major currencies. The Bank signalled it does not foresee further rate hikes in the near term and that it hopes to pause from making any more changes. The market saw this as a minor dovish tilt, weakening the Canadian Dollar slightly.

In the Forex market, the US Dollar is again declining weakly, but the US Dollar Index is very close to support, which is looking likely to hold, possibly stalling much further decline. The Australian Dollar is clearly the strongest major currency after yesterday’s higher inflation print raised expectations the RBA will hike rates in February, while the Canadian Dollar is the weakest following yesterday’s dovish tilt by the Bank of Canada. The EUR/USD currency pair remains within a valid bullish trend and has risen to stand just a few pips short of a 9-month high above $1.09, so it is likely we will see higher prices there over the coming days.

It is a public holiday in China all week due to the Chinese New Year.

Thursday 26th January High Impact Events

The times below are GMT+2

  • 15.30 – US – Advance GDP q/q

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

  • 17.00 – US – New Home Sales

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

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