Errante’s The Week Ahead: 8^th – 12^th September 2025 

Highlights of the week 

• US inflation & labor reset: After a weak NFP print, CPI (Thu) and PPI (Wed) become the swing factors for a September/November Fed cut path; watch initial claims and the 10Y/30Y auctions for confirmation via yields. 

• ECB on hold, guidance in focus: The ECB (Thu) is expected to keep rates unchanged while growth stays soft and headline HICP near 2%. Any hint that downside risks dominate would cap the euro into German CPI (Fri). 

• UK activity pulse: UK July GDP (Fri) tests the BoE “slow-drift” narrative; a positive surprise would support GBP on crosses even if USD direction is set by US CPI. 

Errante’s The Week Ahead: 8th – 12th September 2025 

The market enters the week recalibrating after very weak US payrolls and rising cut bets. Fed-funds pricing now implies a high probability of a 25bp cut by September/November, but the timing hinges on this week’s inflation run-rate: 

US prices:  

Core CPI is projected at 0.3% m/m. Another 0.3% keeps the 3-month annualized pace near ~3½%, uncomfortably sticky for the Fed, especially with PPI feeding pipeline price pressure. A 0.2% (or a soft services “supercore”) would validate the post-NFP dovish shift, push yields lower, DXY softer, and support gold and risk. A firm 0.3–0.4% risks a USD rebound and a shallower September cut (or a deferral to November). 

ECB:  

With headline HICP ≈2% and activity lagging, the Governing Council can stay patient this week but is unlikely to push back against easing expectations for Q4 if data stay weak. A neutral/dovish tone would limit EUR upside unless US CPI underwhelms significantly. 

FX & cross-asset takeaways: 

Soft US CPI/PPI: USD extends lower, EURUSD breaks higher from consolidation; USDCHF resumes its downtrend. Gold bids on falling real yields; US indices stabilize. 

Hot US CPI/PPI: USD squeezes higher, EURUSD fades from resistance, USDCHF bounces toward the 0.80–0.81 supply; gold and duration lag. 

The end-week German CPI and UK GDP then set the tone for the following week’s European data run (and how aggressively markets price an ECB cut into Q4).  

Bottom line: 

 It’s a policy-inflection week, trade the data, but respect ranges around Thursday’s US prints. 

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3) 

Monday, 8^th September 2025 

• 02:50 – JPY – GDP (Q2, q/q) (Forecast: 0.3%, Prev: 0.3%): Confirms Japan’s slow recovery; steady growth removes urgency for further BoJ stimulus. 

Tuesday, 9^th September 2025 

• No high-impact events scheduled: Markets are likely to consolidate, with positioning ahead of US inflation data. 

Wednesday, 10^th September 2025 

• 15:30 – USD – PPI (Aug, m/m) (Prev: 0.9%): Pipeline inflation; a strong print could foreshadow sticky CPI. 

• 17:30 – USD – Crude Oil Inventories (Prev: +2.4M): Provides clues on energy-driven inflation and oil price volatility. 

• 20:00 – USD – 10-Year Note Auction (Prev: 4.26%): Demand will reflect market conviction on Fed rate cut timing. 

Thursday, 11^th September 2025 

• 15:15 – EUR – Deposit Facility Rate (Sep) (Forecast: 2.0%): No change expected but reflects ECB’s baseline policy stance. 

• 15:15 – EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep) (Forecast: 2.15%): Key focus is not the rate, but the guidance. 

• 15:30 – USD – Core CPI (Aug, m/m) (Forecast: 0.3%): The single most important input for the Fed’s September meeting. 

• 15:30 – USD – CPI (YoY, Aug) (Forecast: 2.7%): Headline inflation; reflects energy and tariff impact. 

• 15:30 – USD – CPI (MoM, Aug) (Forecast: 0.3%): Short-term inflation dynamics, critical for market repricing. 

• 15:30 – USD – Initial Jobless Claims (Prev: 237k): Labor softness gauge; rising claims strengthen the dovish case. 

• 15:45 – EUR – ECB Press Conference: Markets will parse Lagarde’s tone for dovish or hawkish leanings. 

• 20:00 – USD – 30-Year Bond Auction (Prev: 4.81%): Long-end demand signals confidence in Fed credibility and inflation expectations. 

Friday, 12^th September 2025 

• 09:00 – GBP – GDP (Jul, m/m) (Prev: 0.4%): Determines if UK growth momentum is stabilizing or slipping back. 

• 09:00 – EUR – German CPI (Aug, m/m) (Forecast: 0.1%, Prev: 0.3%): Regional inflation trend-setter; critical for ECB expectations into Q4. 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

EUR/USD – Daily Chart 

Current Market Trend & Momentum: 

Price is squeezing inside a multi-month triangle; Friday’s close reclaimed the WMA (34/100) (≈1.165/1.161). MACD has flipped marginally positive and MFI is lifting from the low-30s, constructive, but a break is required. 

Main scenario (bullish breakout bias): 

A daily close above 1.1735–1.1740 (triangle cap) unlocks 1.1770 (127.2%), then 1.1815 (161.8%), and 1.1864 (200%). 

Catalyst: softer US CPI/PPI or dovish Fed tone in the aftermath. 

Key levels: 

• Support: 1.1687 (61.8%), 1.1654 (WMA34/triangle mid), 1.1608–1.1607 (WMA100 / lower risk line). 

• Resistance: 1.1735/40, 1.1770, 1.1815, 1.1864. 

Alternative Scenario: 

A rejection at 1.1735 with US CPI ≥0.3% m/m sends EURUSD back to 1.1687, then 1.1650–1.1610. A daily close below 1.1607 would hand control back to sellers toward 1.1550. 

USD/CHF – Daily 

Current Market Trend & Momentum: 

The pair respects a descending trendline from May. Price is below WMA34/100 (≈0.805/0.807), and MACD rolled back into negative territory; MFI ≈45—momentum fading. 

Main scenario (Bearish breakout bias): 

Below 0.8018 (61.8%), bears target 0.7985 (last swing low), 0.7962 (127.2%), 0.7932 (161.8%), then 0.7899 (200%). 

Macro fit: post-NFP USD softness + benign US CPI. 

Key levels: 

• Resistance: 0.8018, 0.8046–0.8070 (WMAs / supply), 0.8071 (recent swing/line), 0.8100. 

• Support: 0.8018, 0.7985, 0.7962, 0.7932, 0.7899. 

Alternative Scenario: 

A hot CPI and yields higher could reclaim 0.8046/0.8070; above the trendline ~0.807 opens 0.8100–0.8120 and delays the bear trend. 

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