Errante’s The Week Ahead: 22^nd – 26^th September 2025 

Highlights of the Week 

• Fed Cut Momentum Meets Fresh Data: Markets continue to digest the Fed’s 25bps cut as focus shifts to U.S. PMI surveys, GDP revision, and Core PCE inflation, key for validating the easing path. 

• SNB Holds Steady, Dollar in Focus: The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain rates at 0%, keeping attention on dollar flows and global risk sentiment. 

• Japan’s Yield Surge & Commodities Watch: Rising JGB yields and record Comex silver positioning highlight how shifts in global bond markets and metals flows may steer FX and commodity moves. 

Errante’s The Week Ahead: 22^nd – 26^th September 2025 

Markets enter the week riding a wave of optimism after the Fed’s recent 25bps cut, which Chair Powell framed as a “risk management” step amid slowing job growth and softening inflation. While futures markets now fully price two more 25bps cuts by December, the credibility of that path hinges on upcoming U.S. data. Core PCE inflation on Friday, expected at 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY, will be the critical barometer. Any upside surprise could challenge the Fed’s dovish bias and halt the dollar’s slide, while a softer print would solidify rate cut bets and fuel demand for gold and silver. 

GDP (Q2) revision is forecast at 3.3% QoQ, reaffirming resilience in consumer spending despite weak durable goods orders. If growth holds firm while inflation cools, risk assets may extend record highs, but the dollar could stay pressured on narrowing real yield spreads. 

In Europe, gilts and bunds remain under pressure after the ECB’s cautious stance last week, but U.S. data dominance means EUR/USD is still largely a dollar story. Meanwhile, Japan’s 10-year yield climbed toward 1.65% after the BoJ kept policy steady but signaled gradual normalization. The divergence between U.S. easing and Japan’s sticky yields could anchor yen strength, especially if risk sentiment wobbles. 

On commodities, silver’s rally is underpinned by robust ETF inflows and futures delivery dynamics, while oil traders will focus on U.S. inventory swings after a massive –9.3M barrel draw. A repeat would support crude prices, cushioning commodity FX. 

The bigger picture is clear: the Fed’s cut has set the tone for Q4, but confirmation must come from inflation, growth, and labor market consistency. This week’s data will either reinforce the easing path or reintroduce policy uncertainty, making it pivotal for FX, gold, and oil positioning. 

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3) 

Monday, 22^nd September 2025 

• No high-impact events. 

Tuesday, 23^rd September 2025 

• Japan Holiday – Autumn Equinox – Thin liquidity in Asia could amplify FX volatility. 

• 16:45 – USD – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Snapshot of factory activity; stability around 53 signals modest expansion. 

• 16:45 – USD – S&P Global Services PMI (Sep): Services remain the U.S. growth engine; staying above 54 shows resilience. 

Wednesday, 24^th September 2025 

• 17:00 – USD – New Home Sales (Aug): Key read on housing demand; expected 650K, steady with July. 

• 17:30 – USD – Crude Oil Inventories: Prior week’s –9.3M draw boosted oil; repeat declines would confirm tightening supply. 

Thursday, 25^th September 2025 

• 10:30 – CHF – SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q3): Rates likely unchanged at 0%, focus on commentary about FX interventions. 

• 15:30 – USD – Durable Goods Orders (Aug): Forecast weak after –2.8% prior, showing strain in capital goods demand. 

• 15:30 – USD – GDP (Q2, Final): Expected 3.3% QoQ, affirming strong consumer-led growth. 

• 15:30 – USD – Initial Jobless Claims: High-frequency labor signal; steady levels (~231K) would ease Fed fears. 

• 17:00 – USD – Existing Home Sales (Aug): Prior decline suggests higher mortgage rates are still biting. 

Friday, 26^th September 2025 

• 15:30 – USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM/YoY, Aug): Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; at 0.3% MoM / 2.9% YoY, markets want confirmation of disinflation. 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

Silver (XAG/USD – Daily) 

Current Market Trend & Momentum: 

Silver remains in a strong bullish channel, consolidating above $42 after testing $42.95 resistance. MACD momentum is positive, while RSI holds near 65, consistent with bullish continuation. 

Main Scenario (Bullish Bias): 

A breakout above $42.95 targets $43.45 (127.2% Fib) and $44.09 (161.8%), with $44.79 (200%) as stretch target. 

Key Levels: 

• Support –$41.12 

• Resistance – $42.95, $43.45, $44.09 

Alternative Scenario: 

Failure below $42.25 would invite deeper pullback toward $41.12. 

Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield (JGB – Daily) 

Current Market Trend & Momentum: 

Yields climbed to 1.64%, testing the upper Bollinger Band with MACD turning positive. The uptrend from early summer remains intact. 

Main Scenario (Continuation Higher): 

Breakout above 1.65% sets sights on 1.68% and 1.72% extensions, with 1.76% possible in extension. 

Key Levels: 

• Support: 1.60%, 1.55%, 1.53% 

• Resistance: 1.65%, 1.68%, 1.72%, 1.76% 

Alternative Scenario: 

Rejection at 1.65% could trigger a corrective pullback toward 1.55% and 1.53% respectively. 

Errante’s Weekly Newsletter brings you critical market insights to keep you ahead in the financial world. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with Errante. 

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