Errante’s The Week Ahead: 18^th – 22^nd August 2025 

Highlights of the Week 

• Central Bank Signals: RBNZ rate decision expected to cut 25bps to 3.00%, with markets watching for guidance on the length of the easing cycle. 

• Inflation in Focus: UK and Eurozone CPI releases will shape BoE and ECB policy expectations ahead of September meetings. 

• Global Growth Pulse: US PMIs and German GDP to provide fresh reads on economic momentum, potentially influencing USD, EUR, and gold positioning. 

Errante’s The Week Ahead: 18^th – 22^nd August 2025

The upcoming week’s macro calendar, while relatively concentrated midweek, carries significant policy implications. The RBNZ rate cut is widely expected, but the market’s real focus will be on the tone of the statement and whether policymakers hint at a faster pace of easing amid slowing domestic growth. A dovish tilt could pressure NZD further, especially against higher-yielding currencies. 

In Europe, the July CPI prints for both the UK and Eurozone are pivotal. For the BoE, persistently elevated UK inflation could complicate its cautious policy stance, while a softer figure may open the door to rate cut speculation later this year. For the ECB, stable Eurozone CPI at 2.0% would support the view that inflation is anchored, reducing the urgency for further hikes. However, any upside surprise could reinvigorate hawkish bets, particularly if German GDP data on Friday does not confirm recessionary fears. 

Across the Atlantic, US manufacturing and services PMIs will serve as a real-time gauge of economic momentum. A continued divergence—with services holding firm and manufacturing contracting—could keep the USD’s performance uneven across pairs. The FOMC meeting minutes and Powell’s remarks will be closely parsed for signals on the Fed’s reaction function, especially in light of recent softer labor data. 

This combination of central bank commentary, inflation data, and growth indicators will set the tone for late-August trading. With policy paths still highly data-dependent, next week’s releases could either reinforce the current consolidation across FX majors or act as a catalyst for renewed directional trends. Traders should remain tactical, watching for volatility spikes around data releases and managing exposure accordingly. 

Monday, 18^th August 2025 

• No high-impact events 

Tuesday, 19^th August 2025 

• No high-impact events 

Wednesday, 20^th August 2025 

• 05:00 – NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Forecast: 3.00% | Previous: 3.25%) 

• 09:00 – GBP – CPI (YoY) (Jul) (Previous: 3.60%) 

• 12:00 – EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jul) (Forecast: 2.00% | Previous: 2.00%) 

• 17:30 – USD – Crude Oil Inventories (Previous: 3.036M) 

• 21:00 – USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes 

Thursday, 21^st August 2025 

• 15:30 – USD – Initial Jobless Claims (Previous: 224K) 

• 15:30 – USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) (Previous: 15.9) 

• 16:45 – USD – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) (Previous: 49.8) 

• 16:45 – USD – S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) (Previous: 55.7) 

• 17:00 – USD – Existing Home Sales (Jul) (Forecast: 3.92M | Previous: 3.93M) 

Friday, 22^nd August 2025 

• 09:00 – EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) (Forecast: -0.10% | Previous: 0.40%) 

• 17:00 – USD – Fed Chair Powell Speaks 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

EUR/USD – Daily Chart 

Current Market Trend & Momentum: 

EUR/USD remains in an upward trend, consolidating above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1636 after rebounding from August lows. Momentum indicators (RSI ~56, Stochastics near overbought) suggest the pair is regaining bullish traction, with the daily WMA at 1.1554 acting as dynamic support. 

Sustained closes above 1.1700 open the way to test the last swing top at 1.1788, followed by 1.1896 (127.2% extension) and 1.2034 (161.8% extension). 

Key Levels: 

• Supports: 1.1636, 1.1554, 1.1391 

• Resistances: 1.1788, 1.1896, 1.2034 

Alternative Scenario: 

A break below 1.1636 would weaken the bullish structure and expose 1.1554 and 1.1391 as deeper supports. 

EUR/JPY – Daily Chart 

Current Market Trend & Momentum: 

EUR/JPY is consolidating just below resistance at 173.01 after recovering from the 170.97 (61.8% retracement) support zone. Momentum is neutral-to-bullish with RSI ~54 and Stochastics pointing higher, but MACD is still slightly negative. 

Holding above 170.97 keeps the door open for a retest of 173.01. A breakout could target 173.44 and then 174.00 in extension. 

Key Levels: 

• Support – 170.97, 169.71, 168.82 

• Resistance – 173.01, 173.44, 174.00 

Alternative Scenario: 

A sustained break below 170.97 would shift the bias lower towards 169.71 and the 168.82 (127.2% extension) area. 

Errante’s Weekly Newsletter brings you critical market insights to keep you ahead in the financial world. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with Errante. 

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