Errante’s The Week Ahead: 15^th – 19^th September 2025 

Highlights of the Week 

• Fed in Focus: FOMC meeting, projections, and Powell’s press conference will dominate, with markets pricing a 25bps rate cut as weak labor data reinforces the dovish pivot. 

• Inflation Check: UK, Eurozone, and U.S. CPI releases will provide clarity on whether disinflation trends continue and how far central banks can push rate cuts. 

• Global Policy Divergence: BoE and BoJ meetings could highlight contrasts — the BoE balancing sticky inflation with soft growth, while the BoJ maintains its ultra-accommodative stance. 

Errante’s The Week Ahead: 15^th – 19^th September 2025 

The upcoming week marks one of the most consequential stretches of the quarter. The Fed enters its September meeting under intense pressure after the latest NFP report showed the weakest job growth in four years and jobless claims rose to levels not seen since 2021.  

Treasury yields have already dropped below 4% on the 10-year for the first time since April, signaling a market convinced the Fed will cut rates. Futures fully price in a 0.25% cut at all three remaining meetings in 2025, though Powell’s tone will determine whether markets scale up bets for a more aggressive easing cycle in 2026. 

At the same time, inflation trends are nuanced. U.S. CPI is expected at 2.7% YoY, consistent with last month’s moderation. The Fed’s preferred PCE index at 2.6% (July) confirms that disinflation is underway but not yet sufficient to dismiss tariff-driven risks. Powell must balance these opposing risks — a fragile labor market and sticky prices — in his messaging. This makes the dot plot and economic projections just as important as the rate decision itself. 

In Europe, Eurozone CPI at 2.1% is expected to confirm stability near target, giving the ECB room to pause after last week’s decision. Germany’s inflation trends (0.1% MoM forecast) reinforce this moderation, though weak growth complicates the policy path. For the UK, CPI at nearly 4% YoY remains too high for comfort, keeping the BoE under pressure even as the economy slows. Sterling will be especially sensitive to how the BoE frames its stance this week. 

Elsewhere, the BoC and BoJ decisions will offer perspective on global policy divergence. The BoC is expected to hold at 2.75%, keeping a cautious eye on slowing growth. The BoJ is set to maintain its 0.5% policy rate and yield-curve control, leaving JPY vulnerable to further depreciation unless global risk aversion sparks safe-haven inflows. 

This convergence of inflation updates and major central bank meetings will shape FX and gold. A dovish Fed could extend the USD downtrend, driving EUR/USD higher and providing tailwinds to gold, while GBP/JPY could remain supported by yield differentials. Traders should brace for volatility around Wednesday’s Fed decision and Thursday’s BoE/BoJ meetings. 

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3) 

Monday, 15^th September 2025 

• Japan – Holiday – Respect for the Aged Day 

Tuesday, 16^th September 2025 

• 15:30 – USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) (Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%) – Gauges consumer demand excluding autos. 

• 15:30 – USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) (Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.5%) – Broader measure of U.S. consumption, crucial for GDP growth. 

Wednesday, 17^th September 2025 

• 09:00 – GBP – CPI (YoY) (Aug) (Previous: 3.8%) – Inflation remains elevated, key for BoE stance. 

• 12:00 – EUR – CPI (YoY) (Aug) (Forecast: 2.1% | Previous: 2.0%) – Headline inflation around target, affecting ECB expectations. 

• 16:45 – CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision (Previous: 2.75%) – Expected hold, but tone on growth outlook matters. 

• 17:30 – USD – Crude Oil Inventories (Previous: +3.939M) – Energy markets and inflation-sensitive. 

• 21:00 – USD – FOMC Statement & Economic Projections – Critical for market guidance on future rate path. 

• 21:00 – USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision (Forecast: 4.25% | Previous: 4.50%) – Market expects a 25bps cut. 

• 21:30 – USD – FOMC Press Conference – Powell’s guidance will steer FX, equities, and gold. 

Thursday, 18^th September 2025 

• 14:00 – GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep) (Previous: 4.00%) – BoE under pressure with inflation still elevated. 

• 15:30 – USD – Initial Jobless Claims (Previous: 263K) – Labor market weakness continues. 

• 15:30 – USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) (Forecast: 3 | Previous: -0.3) – Regional growth barometer. 

Friday, 19^th September 2025 

• 06:00 – JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Previous: 0.5%) – Expected steady, focus on commentary about yen weakness. 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Daily Chart 

Current Trend & Momentum: 

The DXY remains under pressure near 97.8, trading in a descending wedge pattern. Momentum indicators are weak: MACD is negative, and Bollinger Bands suggest continued volatility. 

Main Scenario: 

A dovish Fed could push DXY toward support at 97.30, with further downside to 96.37. 

Key Levels: 

• Support – 97.30, 96.37 

• Resistance – 98.63, 100.25 

Alternative Scenario: 

A surprise hawkish Fed or stronger CPI could drive a rebound above 98.63, targeting 100.25. 

GBP/JPY – Daily Chart 

Current Trend & Momentum: 

GBP/JPY trades around 200.3, breaking above 200.15 resistance. MACD is turning bullish, RSI near 55, and momentum supported by divergence in BoE-BoJ policy. 

Main Scenario: 

Continuation higher toward 200.66, then 201.17 and 201.73 extension. 

Key Levels: 

• Support – 199.70, 198.78 

• Resistance – 200.66, 201.17, 201.73 

Alternative Scenario: 

Failure to hold above 200.15 could drag the pair back to 199.70 or 198.78. 

Errante’s Weekly Newsletter brings you critical market insights to keep you ahead in the financial world. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with Errante. 

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