Errante’s The Week Ahead: 11^th – 15^th August 2025

Highlights of the Week

• RBA Interest Rate Decision (Tuesday): Markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates from 3.85% to 3.60%, with the Australian dollar under scrutiny amid signs of slowing domestic growth.
• US CPI & PPI (Tuesday & Thursday): Inflation data will be pivotal in shaping expectations for the Fed’s next move. July’s CPI is forecast to tick higher to 2.8% YoY, potentially complicating the rate-cut narrative.
• UK GDP (Thursday): A set of Q2 GDP readings will test the Bank of England’s cautious optimism after holding rates steady.
• Japanese GDP (Friday): Modest growth expected at 0.10% QoQ, with yen traders watching for any deviation.

Errante’s The Week Ahead: 11^th – 15^th August 2025

Markets are heading into the new week with a fragile equilibrium, where central bank expectations, incoming macro data, and geopolitical undercurrents are all colliding. The dominant driver will be whether upcoming inflation prints in the US and UK, alongside key growth readings, reinforce the soft-landing narrative or reignite fears of sticky inflation and policy hesitation.

For the US dollar, July’s CPI and PPI will serve as the litmus test for the Fed’s September meeting trajectory. Softer-than-expected prints could accelerate the repricing toward a 25 bps cut, particularly given last week’s weaker payrolls and easing wage growth. Conversely, any upside surprise in core inflation would force traders to pare back dovish bets, strengthening the dollar and potentially sparking a short squeeze in risk-sensitive assets.

The Australian dollar faces a binary week. The RBA is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps to 3.60%, but the tone of the statement will determine whether AUD sentiment deteriorates further or stabilizes. A clear signal of a prolonged easing cycle could open the door for deeper losses toward recent multi-month lows. On the other hand, a “hawkish cut” — framing the move as insurance rather than the start of a sustained cycle — could provide the currency with a short-term reprieve, especially against lower-yielders like the yen and Swiss franc.

UK GDP data will be another pivot point for sterling. A resilient reading, particularly in services output, could bolster the BoE’s stance that policy rates can remain restrictive without causing immediate damage to growth. This would limit downside in GBP/USD and GBP crosses. However, if GDP surprises on the downside, it would validate market speculation that the BoE’s next move is toward easing — a scenario that could weigh heavily on sterling, especially if coupled with dovish commentary from policymakers.

Beyond currencies, global risk sentiment remains delicately poised. US equity indices have been resilient, but positioning is stretched, and a disappointment in either retail sales or CPI could trigger a sharp pullback from record highs. Commodities like gold and oil may see asymmetric reactions — gold benefiting from renewed Fed cut bets and risk-off flows, while oil remains hostage to demand expectations and supply-side geopolitical risks.

Bottom line:

This is a week where cross-asset volatility could reprice quickly in either direction. Traders should remain nimble, fade extremes rather than chase breakouts, and focus on relative value opportunities — particularly AUD crosses around the RBA decision, GBP/USD into GDP data, and equity indices into US CPI and retail sales.

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3)

Monday, 11^th August 2025

• No High Impact Event

Tuesday, 12^th August 2025

• 07:30 – AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug): Forecast 3.60%, Previous 3.85%
• 15:30 – USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jul): Forecast 0.30%, Previous 0.20%
• 15:30 – USD – CPI (MoM) (Jul): Forecast 0.20%, Previous 0.30%
• 15:30 – USD – CPI (YoY) (Jul): Forecast 2.80%, Previous 2.70%

Wednesday, 13^th August 2025

• 09:00 – EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Jul): Forecast 0.30%, Previous 0.00%
• 17:30 – USD – Crude Oil Inventories: Previous -3.029M

Thursday, 14^th August 2025

• 09:00 – GBP – GDP (MoM) (Jun)
• 09:00 – GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q2): Previous 0.70%
• 09:00 – GBP – GDP (YoY) (Q2): Previous 1.30%
• 15:30 – USD – Initial Jobless Claims: Previous 226K
• 15:30 – USD – PPI (MoM) (Jul): Forecast 0.20%, Previous 0.00%

Friday, 15^th August 2025

• 02:50 – JPY – GDP (QoQ) (Q2): Forecast 0.10%, Previous 0.00%
• 15:30 – USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul): Forecast 0.20%, Previous 0.50%
• 15:30 – USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul): Forecast 0.50%, Previous 0.60%

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch

AUD/CHF – Daily Chart

Current Market Trend & Momentum:

AUD/CHF has broken above short-term downtrend resistance and the last market top at 0.52603. Momentum is supported by a bullish crossover in Stochastics (84.00) and RSI at 57.80, with price holding above both WMA lines.

Main Scenario:

Continuation toward Fibonacci extensions at 0.52794 (127.2%), 0.53037 (161.8%), and 0.53306 (200%).

Key Levels:

• Support at 0.52334 (61.8% Fib) and 0.51900 (Last bottom).
• Resistance at 0.52794, 0.53037 and 0.53306.

Alternative Scenario:

A daily close back below 0.52334 would invalidate the breakout, risking a slide toward 0.51900.

US500 (S&P 500 Index) – Daily Chart

Current Market Trend & Momentum:

The index remains in a strong ascending channel, recovering quickly from last week’s pullback. RSI is at 58.17, and OBV remains positive, confirming accumulation.

Main Scenario:

Test of 6,437 (last market top) followed by 6,498 (127.2%) and 6,577 (161.8%) if bullish sentiment persists post-US CPI.

Key Levels:

• Support at 6,350 (61.8% Fib) and 6,210 (Last bottom).
• Resistance at 6,437, 6,498, and 6,577.

Alternative Scenario:

A break below 6,350 could trigger deeper correction toward 6,210, especially if US CPI surprises to the upside and tightens Fed expectations.

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