Errante’s The Week Ahead: 7^th – 11^th July 2025

Highlights of the Week

• US FOMC Minutes and Jobs Data: Markets will focus on the implications of last week’s NFP surprise—stronger headline job gains but moderating hourly earnings growth. FOMC minutes will be scrutinized for forward policy signals.
• Central Bank Decisions: The RBA and RBNZ rate decisions will shape AUD and NZD sentiment in the context of a global pivot toward data dependency.
• European Inflation & UK GDP: Multiple German CPI prints and UK monthly GDP will impact EUR and GBP pairs, particularly as both economies navigate the crosscurrents of disinflation and tepid growth.
• US Tariffs Negotiations: Ongoing trade talks could impact major currency pairs and gold, as the White House weighs potential new tariffs on Chinese and EU imports.

Errante’s The Week Ahead: 7^th – 11^th July 2025

Macro and Policy Narrative

The coming week is dominated by the complexity of the US labor market: June’s NFP report showed a robust headline jobs increase but revealed the slowest average hourly earnings growth in over a year. This divergence adds a fresh twist to Fed policy expectations. With inflation cooling but jobs still plentiful, the Fed’s path is likely to remain cautious and data-dependent, as reinforced by the upcoming FOMC minutes.

Implications for Fed Policy:

Academic and market consensus increasingly expect that the Fed will delay its first rate cut to late Q4 or even 2026 unless wage growth and core inflation soften further. A healthy jobs market alone is no longer sufficient to trigger easing; the focus has shifted to signs of sustained wage moderation.

Tariff Negotiations—Risks and FX Impact:

US tariff negotiations with China and Europe have re-emerged as a key market risk. A move toward higher tariffs would likely boost the USD (risk aversion), support JPY and gold (safe havens), and pressure commodity and cyclical currencies (AUD, CNY, EUR). On the other hand, any diplomatic progress could provide a short-term lift to risk assets and weigh on the USD and gold.

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3)

Monday, 7^th July:
No high-impact data

Tuesday, 8^th July:

• 07:30 – AUD: RBA Interest Rate Decision (3.60% f/c, prev 3.85%)

Wednesday, 9^th July:

• 05:00 – NZD: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (3.25% expected)
• 17:30 – USD: Crude Oil Inventories (prev 3.845M)
• 20:00 – USD: 10-Year Note Auction
• 21:00 – USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thursday, 10^th July:

• 09:00 – EUR: German CPI (MoM) (0.00% f/c, prev 0.10%)
• 15:30 – USD: Initial Jobless Claims (235K f/c, prev 233K)
• 20:00 – USD: 30-Year Bond Auction

Friday, 11^th July:

• 09:00 – GBP: GDP (MoM) (May, prev -0.30%)
• 09:00 – EUR: German CPI (MoM) (0.00% f/c, prev 0.10%)

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch

XAUUSD – Gold Spot, Daily

Gold remains in a broad consolidation pattern, trading in a symmetrical triangle above key moving averages. The precious metal is sensitive to Fed guidance, US macro data, and tariff headlines. Rangebound trading persists. A break above $3,450 would trigger bullish momentum toward $3,500. If safe haven demand returns due to negative trade headlines or weak data, gold could challenge the upper end of the range.

Momentum & Oscillators:

RSI: Neutral at 50, showing a lack of strong conviction.

MACD: Flat, near zero, supporting a sideways bias.

Stochastic: Turning up, hinting at a possible bounce if risk aversion rises.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: $3,450 (trendline), $3,500 (record high).
• Support: $3,275 (23.6% Fib, triangle base), $3,132 (38.2% Fib).

Alternative:

A downside break of $3,275 opens the path to $3,132. Further losses toward $3,018 are possible if US yields rise or inflation surprises to the upside.

USDJPY – Daily Chart

USDJPY is trading within a narrowing triangle, reflecting policy and macro indecision. Price action is guided by both US yields and global risk flows. Continued sideways trading is expected between 144.40 and 147.15 until a major policy or tariff catalyst emerges. A breakout above 147.15 would target 151.60; a breakdown below 144.36 would expose 139.88.

Momentum & Oscillators:

• RSI: Neutral, just under 50.
• MACD: Slightly negative, reflecting waning bullish momentum.
• Stochastic: Rising from oversold, suggesting a possible near-term bounce.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: 146.60 (triangle top), 147.15 (38.2% Fib), 151.60 (61.8% Fib).
• Support: 144.36 (23.6% Fib, triangle base), 139.88 (major low).

Alternative:

If risk aversion intensifies (tariff escalation or weak global data), expect JPY strength—USDJPY could test lower supports quickly.

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