Errante’s The Week Ahead: 1^st – 5^th December 2025 

Highlights of the Week 

1. The US “survey stack” is the first real macro compass after the shutdown fog 
   This week is not about one print, it’s about consistency across ISM Manufacturing (and Prices), ISM Services (and Prices), S&P Global PMIs, and the labour proxies (JOLTS, ADP, claims). If these line up, the market will reprice the whole December path in one go. 

2. A second inflation anchor: Core PCE (even if stale) still matters for policy signalling 
   Yes, it covers September, yes, it’s backward-looking. But it’s still the Fed’s preferred metric and will anchor the language going into the Dec 9–10 meeting. The reaction is less about “inflation now” and more about “committee confidence.” 

3. Powell’s communication risk is higher than usual 
   With patchy data, markets over-weight tone. If Powell validates the easing narrative, the market may push harder into “December cut + 2026 glide path.” If he leans cautious, we risk a reflex dollar bid and renewed equity volatility. 

4. Euro CPI is a reflexive EUR catalyst, but the bigger driver remains relative growth 
   A soft print reinforces ECB easing expectations and keeps EUR rallies capped. A firm print can support EUR short-term, but it won’t become a trend unless US growth visibly cools. 

5. Market structure can hijack macro again 
   The CME disruption is a warning: in thin/fragile liquidity, price can move faster than fundamentals. This matters most around high-frequency releases (PMIs/ISM) where algos dominate and stop runs are common. 

What Now 

The week’s theme is “Is easing bullish or bearish?” 

Markets are leaning toward a December cut. That can be pro-risk if it’s interpreted as confidence in disinflation and a controlled slowdown. It becomes risk-negative if it’s interpreted as the Fed reacting to a deteriorating labour market and fading demand. 

So, the job this week is to separate three regimes: 

Regime A: Soft-landing confirmation (best for equities, worst for USD upside) 

Trigger: ISM/PMIs stabilise or improve, ISM Prices cool or stay contained, labour proxies don’t crack. 

Implications: 

• US indices: rebound/repair likely as the market reframes the selloff as positioning + liquidity, not recession. 

• DXY: loses upside momentum; rallies fade as rate differentials compress. 

• EUR/USD: can stabilise and grind higher but still faces overhead supply unless Europe surprises on growth. 

• Gold: supported; less liquidation risk, more “real yields drift lower” support. 

Regime B: Growth scare (USD up first, then USD down later — the classic two-stage move) 

Trigger: ISM Manufacturing weakens further and Services rolls over; jobless claims jump; JOLTS falls sharply. 

Implications: 

• US indices: downside continues; volatility stays elevated; “bad news is bad news” initially. 

• DXY: tends to spike higher at first on deleveraging and hedging demand, even if rate-cut odds rise. 

• Gold: can dip toward key supports on liquidity-driven selling, then recover strongly once the market fully commits to the easing cycle. 

• EUR/USD: initially pressured by USD safe-haven bid but later supported if the US curve bull-steepens on aggressive cuts. 

Regime C: Inflation persistence (the “hawkish cut” problem) 

Trigger: ISM Prices remain hot, services inflation signal feels sticky, Powell sounds uneasy about cutting. 

Implications: 

• US indices: valuation pressure returns (higher real yields), especially in long-duration tech. 

• DXY: firm bid; “US exceptionalism + yield support” returns. 

• EUR/USD: downside risk increases; rallies become selling opportunities. 

• Gold: more two-way; strong nominal yields cap upside unless geopolitics re-ignite. 

How to trade the week as an FX strategist (practical, not poetic) 

Trade the reaction function, not the number. For each release ask: does it change December odds, and more importantly does it change the expected path for Q1 2026? That’s what moves FX trends. 

Focus on the pair that expresses the theme cleanly. “US growth vs easing” tends to show up cleanest in DXY and EUR/USD. “Rates narrative” shows up in long-end yields (your US30Y chart) which feeds directly into USD and gold. 

Respect the sequencing of catalysts. 

Early week: Manufacturing narrative (S&P/ISM). 

Mid-week: labour proxies (JOLTS/ADP/claims). 

End-week: inflation anchor (Core PCE). 

The market often establishes a bias in the first two steps, then PCE either confirms it or triggers a violent reversal. 

Liquidity/market-structure risk is not background noise. After the CME glitch, assume wider spreads and stop-driven moves around 16:45–17:00 GMT+2 releases. Risk management matters more than prediction this week. 

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+2) 

Monday, 1^st December 2025 

• 16:45 — USD — S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov) (Forecast: 51.9 | Prev: 52.5) 

• 17:00 — USD — ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) (Prev: 48.7) 

• 17:00 — USD — ISM Manufacturing Prices (Nov) (Prev: 58.0) 

Tuesday, 2^nd December 2025 

• 03:00 — USD — Fed Chair Powell Speaks 

• 12:00 — EUR — CPI (YoY) (Nov) (Prev: 2.1%) 

• 17:00 — USD — JOLTS Job Openings (Sep) (Prev: 7.227M) 

Wednesday, 3^rd December 2025 

• 15:15 — USD — ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov) (Prev: 42K) 

• 16:45 — USD — S&P Global Services PMI (Nov) (Forecast: 55.0 | Prev: 54.8) 

• 17:00 — USD — ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) (Prev: 52.4) 

• 17:00 — USD — ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Nov) (Prev: 70.0) 

• 17:30 — USD — Crude Oil Inventories (Prev: 2.774M) 

Thursday, 4^th December 2025 

• 15:30 — USD — Initial Jobless Claims (Prev: 216K) 

Friday, 5^th December 2025 

• 17:00 — USD — Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep) (Prev: 0.2%) 

• 17:00 — USD — Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep) (Forecast: 2.9% | Prev: 2.9%) 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

EUR/USD (Daily) 

Corrective downside pressure after the September peak 

EUR/USD is holding around 1.1566 but remains capped beneath the declining trend structure from the September highs. Price is hovering near the 23.6% retracement zone (~1.1507), which is acting like the “line in the sand” between stabilization and trend continuation lower. 

Main scenario (base case) 

As long as rallies fail under the 1.16–1.17 supply zone, the market is biased to grind lower, particularly if US ISM/PMIs stabilise and the dollar holds above 100. A clean break below 1.1507 increases downside probability into the next support band. 

Key levels (EUR/USD) 

Resistance: 

• 1.1629 (near the moving average / overhead trend pressure zone) 

• 1.1700 (upper corrective cap) 

• 1.1918 (cycle high / 0% line) 

Support: 

• 1.1507 (23.6% retracement “decision” level) 

• 1.1391 (next horizontal support) 

• 1.1253 (38.2% retracement) 

• 1.1048 (50% retracement) 

Alternative scenario 

If EUR CPI surprises higher and US surveys soften, EUR/USD can reclaim 1.1629–1.1700. That would shift the short-term structure from “sell-rallies” toward “range-to-upside,” with 1.1918 back in scope later. 

US 30Y Yield (Daily)  

Lower highs, leaning toward a drift-down regime 

The 30Y yield is near 4.65%, beneath the key 4.73 pivot and well below the 5.00 area. Momentum signals on the chart lean soft: rallies have been sold, and the structure looks like a consolidation that is resolving gradually lower (unless data shocks force repricing). 

Main scenario (base case) 

If the US survey complex (ISM/PMIs) does not re-accelerate, yields are biased to drift lower toward 4.52 and 4.39. That would be consistent with markets reinforcing December, easing expectations and favouring duration. 

Key levels (US30Y) 

Resistance: 

• 4.733 (100% pivot) 

• 4.864 (61.8%) 

• 4.995 (23.6%) 

• 5.076 (0% / upper reference) 

Support: 

• 4.640 (127.2% pivot area) 

• 4.521 (161.8%) 

• 4.390 (200%) 

• 4.248 (241.4%) 

Alternative scenario 

A stronger ISM + sticky prices component (manufacturing or services) can revive “inflation persistence” pricing and push yields back above 4.733, reopening 4.864 and potentially 4.995. 

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