US Payrolls Take Center Stage as Markets Reprice the Fed

Highlights of the week

• Friday’s NFP is the week’s main USD and yield catalyst.
• JOLTS, ADP and Core PCE will shape expectations before payrolls.
• RBA policy, China PMI and Eurozone CPI remain key cross-market risks.

What Now

Friday’s NFP is the week’s key market test after payroll growth rebounded to 162K in August but remains below March’s 214K pace. Strong jobs, firm 0.3 percent wage growth and stable unemployment would support the Fed’s hawkish stance, Treasury yields and USD.

Weaker hiring or wages would favor bonds, gold and risk FX. JOLTS and ADP will provide early signals, while Core PCE, near 3.3 percent, keeps inflation pressure relevant.

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3)

Monday, September 28, 2026

• No major events scheduled.

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

• 07:30 – Australia (AUD) – RBA Interest Rate Decision for September, previous 4.35 percent
• 17:00 – United States (USD) – CB Consumer Confidence for September, previous 89.4
• 17:00 – United States (USD) – JOLTS Job Openings for August, previous 7.271M

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

• 04:30 – China (CNY) – Manufacturing PMI for September, previous 49.8
• 09:00 – United Kingdom (GBP) – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final for Q2, forecast 0.40 percent, previous 0.60 percent
• 09:00 – United Kingdom (GBP) – GDP Growth Rate YoY Final for Q2, forecast 1.20 percent, previous 0.90 percent
• 15:00 – Germany (EUR) – CPI MoM Preliminary for September, previous 0.20 percent
• 15:15 – United States (USD) – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for September, previous 38K
• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Core PCE Price Index YoY for August, previous 3.30 percent
• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Core PCE Price Index MoM for August, previous 0.20 percent
• 15:30 – United States (USD) – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final for Q2, previous 1.50 percent
• 16:45 – United States (USD) – Chicago PMI for September, previous 47.1

Thursday, October 1, 2026

• All Day – China (CNY) – National Day holiday
• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Initial Jobless Claims
• 16:45 – United States (USD) – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for September, previous 53.9
• 17:00 – United States (USD) – ISM Manufacturing PMI for September, previous 54.6
• 17:00 – United States (USD) – ISM Manufacturing Prices for September, previous 71.1

Friday, October 2, 2026

• All Day – China (CNY) – National Day holiday
• 12:00 – Eurozone (EUR) – CPI YoY Preliminary for September, previous 3.20 percent
• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Nonfarm Payrolls for September, previous 162K
• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Unemployment Rate for September, previous 4.10 percent
• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Average Hourly Earnings MoM for September, previous 0.30 percent