Highlights of the week 

• RBA and US services data open the week. 
• US labor data decide the dollar tone. 
• Thin Asia holiday liquidity can amplify moves. 

What Now 

This week’s market focus is whether US data shows enough economic cooling to weaken the dollar, or whether sticky inflation keeps the Fed restrictive and supports USD resilience. 

Tuesday is the first major test. The RBA is expected to hold rates at 4.10%, but AUD reaction will depend on whether the statement sounds cautious or hawkish on energy-driven inflation. In the US, services data will dominate, especially ISM services and the prices-paid component. If services activity remains solid and price pressures stay high, US yields and the dollar should remain supported. A clearer slowdown would weaken the demand narrative and pressure USD. 

Wednesday and Thursday will help confirm the labor trend through ADP and jobless claims. Markets will use these releases to position for Friday’s non-farm payrolls. 

Friday is the main event. Payrolls were last at 178K, unemployment at 4.3%, and wages at 0.2% month on month. Strong jobs data and firm wages would support the dollar. Softer payrolls combined with weaker wages would be more bearish for USD because it would signal both slower growth and easing inflation pressure. 

Overall, the macro backdrop still favors relative dollar resilience, supported by geopolitical risk, cautious Fed pricing, and potentially sharper FX moves due to thin holiday liquidity early in the week. 

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3) 

Monday, May 4, 2026 

• All Day – China (CNY) – Labor Day holiday 

• All Day – Japan (JPY) – Greenery Day holiday 

• All Day – United Kingdom (GBP) – Early May Bank Holiday 

• No high impact event 

Tuesday, May 5, 2026 

• All Day – China (CNY) – Labor Day holiday 

• All Day – Japan (JPY) – National Sovereignty and Children’s Day holiday 

• 07:30 – Australia (AUD) – RBA Interest Rate Decision, previous 4.10 percent 

• 16:45 – United States (USD) – S&P Global Services PMI for April, previous 51.3 

• 17:00 – United States (USD) – New Home Sales for March, previous 587 thousand 

• 17:00 – United States (USD) – JOLTS Job Openings for March, previous 6.882 million 

• 17:00 – United States (USD) – ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices for April, previous 70.7 

• 17:00 – United States (USD) – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for April, previous 54.0 

Wednesday, May 6, 2026 

• All Day – Japan (JPY) – Constitution Day holiday 

• 15:15 – United States (USD) – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for April, previous 62 thousand 

Thursday, May 7, 2026 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Initial Jobless Claims 

Friday, May 8, 2026 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Average Hourly Earnings MoM for April, forecast 0.2 percent 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Nonfarm Payrolls for April, previous 178 thousand 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Unemployment Rate for April, previous 4.3 percent