Highlights of the week

• US ISM Services PMI and FOMC minutes will test whether the dollar’s yield premium can hold.
• Canada’s Ivey PMI and unemployment rate will guide CAD after recent signs of stronger activity.
• China CPI and Germany trade data will show whether global growth is stabilizing or still fragile.

What Now

This week’s lighter calendar still carries important FX implications, with the dollar supported by resilient US services activity and a cautious Fed stance, as ISM Services PMI remains above 50 and inflation pressures persist. Upcoming ISM data and FOMC minutes will determine whether USD strength continues or softens.

CAD faces key tests from Ivey PMI and labor data after recent improvements, while China’s CPI will signal whether inflation reflects cost pressures or weak demand, influencing commodity currencies.

Meanwhile, EUR will react to Germany’s trade balance amid a narrowing surplus, and US existing-home sales will provide insight into rate-sensitive growth, with stronger data supporting yields and weaker data favoring bonds and gold.

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3)

Monday, July 6, 2026

• 17:00 – United States (USD) – ISM Services PMI for June, previous 54.5

Tuesday, July 7, 2026

• 09:00 – United Kingdom (GBP) – Halifax House Price Index YoY for June, previous 0.5 percent
• 17:00 – Canada (CAD) – Ivey PMI s.a. for June, previous 58.2

Wednesday, July 8, 2026

• 05:00 – New Zealand (NZD) – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, previous 2.25 percent
• 21:00 – United States (USD) – FOMC Minutes

Thursday, July 9, 2026

• 04:30 – Mainland China (CNY) – Inflation Rate YoY for June, previous 1.20 percent
• 09:00 – Germany (EUR) – Balance of Trade for May, previous 14.5B euro
• 17:00 – United States (USD) – Existing Home Sales for June, previous 4.17M

Friday, July 10, 2026

• 09:00 – Germany (EUR) – CPI MoM for June, previous -0.3 percent
• 15:30 – Canada (CAD) – Unemployment Rate for June, previous 6.60 percent