Errante’s The Week Ahead: 7th – 11th April 2025 

Highlights of the Week: 

• FOMC Meeting Minutes and Fed Chair Powell Speech: Potential insights into future US monetary policy direction. 

• US CPI Data: Key inflation figures to gauge Fed’s next moves amid rising expectations for rate cuts. 

• RBNZ and BoJ Speeches: Monitoring central bank perspectives amid global economic turbulence. 

Errante’s The Week Ahead: 7th – 11th April 2025 

Looking ahead, this week is pivotal for currency pairs as major economic indicators and central bank communications take center stage. The combination of US CPI data, FOMC Meeting Minutes, and employment data will set the tone for USD movements, while speeches from RBNZ and BoJ officials could shape sentiment for NZD and JPY. Traders are expected to position cautiously, especially in light of increasing rate cut expectations in the US amid economic slowdown concerns. 

The ongoing market turmoil driven by President Donald Trump’s tariffs continues to weigh heavily on investor sentiment. The fallout from the trade war has led to heightened expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with money markets now pricing in 100 basis points of reductions by the end of the year — equivalent to four 25-basis-point moves. This represents an increase from the previous expectation of 75 basis points. 

The US 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4% on Friday, marking the lowest level since the election, as market participants increasingly expect a quarter-point cut by June. The tariffs also dragged down oil prices, with Brent crude dropping below $70 per barrel after a 6.4% fall on Thursday, marking the steepest decline since 2022. Meanwhile, OPEC+’s decision to increase output faster than anticipated added further pressure on energy markets. 

Investor sentiment remains cautious as markets brace for the Fed’s next moves amid concerns about a global economic slowdown. With major central bank speeches scheduled this week, traders will be closely watching any policy signals that could impact USD positioning. 

Upcoming Data and Events (GMT+3): 

Monday, April 7: 

• No major events scheduled. 

Tuesday, April 8: 

• No major events scheduled. 

Wednesday, April 9: 

• Tentative – JPY: BoJ Gov Ueda Speaks – Insights into BoJ’s policy stance amid economic challenges. 

• 5:00 AM – NZD: Official Cash Rate – Expected to remain steady at 3.50%. 

• 5:00 AM – NZD: RBNZ Rate Statement – Provides insight into the central bank’s economic outlook. 

• 9:00 PM – USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes – Clues on the Fed’s next policy steps. 

Thursday, April 10: 

• 1:00 PM – AUD: RBA Gov Bullock Speaks – Discusses Australia’s economic outlook and potential monetary adjustments. 

• 3:30 PM – USD: Core CPI m/m – Key inflation metric indicating underlying price pressures. 

• 3:30 PM – USD: CPI m/m – Measures inflation changes for consumers. 

• 3:30 PM – USD: CPI y/y – Annual inflation rate. 

• 3:30 PM – USD: Unemployment Claims – Weekly jobless claims data. 

Friday, April 11: 

• 9:00 AM – GBP: GDP m/m – Measures economic growth on a monthly basis. 

• 3:30 PM – USD: Core PPI m/m – Producer price inflation, excluding food and energy. 

• 3:30 PM – USD: PPI m/m – Overall producer price inflation. 

• 5:00 PM – USD: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – Gauges consumer confidence. 

• 5:00 PM – USD: Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations – Provides insight into consumer inflation outlook. 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

USD/JPY – Daily Chart: 

Technical Picture:  

The USD/JPY pair has broken below the key support level of 146.53, indicating a bearish continuation. The next support levels are located at 127.20% (145.26), 161.80% (143.65), and 200.00% (141.87). The RSI at 33.37 suggests that the pair is approaching oversold territory, while the MACD remains bearish, indicating downward momentum. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 148.31, 151.20 

• Support: 146.53, 145.26, 143.65, 141.87 

Alternative Scenario: 

If the pair regains ground above 148.31, it may target the 151.20 resistance level, indicating a potential bullish reversal. 

Impactful Events: 

• US CPI data (Thu), FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wed) 

USD/CAD – Daily Chart: 

Technical Picture:  

USD/CAD has broken below the key support level of the last market bottom at 1.4150, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend. The next significant support is at 127.20% (1.4043), followed by 161.80% (1.3907) and 200.00% (1.3757). The RSI at 38.63 shows bearish sentiment, while the MACD confirms a negative momentum. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 1.4301, 1.4542 

• Support: 1.4150, 1.4043, 1.3907, 1.3757 

Alternative Scenario: 

If the pair rebounds above 1.4301, it may attempt to recover toward 1.4542, but sustained bearish momentum could limit gains. 

Impactful Events: 

• CAD Employment Change (Fri), US CPI (Thu) 

Errante’s Weekly Newsletter brings you critical market insights to keep you ahead in the financial world. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with Errante. 

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