Errante’s The Week Ahead: 31st March – 4th April 2025 

Highlights of the Week: 

• RBA Monetary Policy Decision: Insight into Australia’s interest rate outlook. 

• US ISM PMIs and Job Reports: Key indicators of US economic health. 

• Fed Chair Powell’s Speech: Crucial insights on future Fed policy and economic forecasts. 

Errante’s The Week Ahead: 31st March – 4th April 2025 

Markets enter the week with reduced pessimism following recent declines, as indicated by the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey. Bearish sentiment remains historically high, although optimism and neutral outlooks have shown an uptick due to recent stability in US equities. Despite this slight sentiment improvement, caution prevails given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and anticipation surrounding key data releases. 

Attention shifts to economic releases such as US Non-Farm Payrolls, ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, and employment figures from Canada. These data points will offer clarity on the resilience of the US economy amidst continued speculation of a potential economic slowdown influenced by recent trade disputes and tariff policies. 

Investors remain hesitant to heavily favor Europe over the US in the medium-term without stronger fiscal measures and broader economic stability. 

Upcoming Data and Events (GMT+3): 

Monday, March 31: 

• 4:30 AM – CNY: Manufacturing PMI – Important gauge of Chinese economic activity. 

• All Day – EUR: German Prelim CPI m/m – Insight into inflation trends in Europe’s largest economy. 

Tuesday, April 1: 

• 6:30 AM – AUD: Cash Rate & RBA Rate Statement – Central bank’s interest rate decision and outlook. 

• 5:00 PM – USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI – Indicates manufacturing sector performance. 

• 5:00 PM – USD: JOLTS Job Openings – Reflects labor market tightness. 

Wednesday, April 2: 

• 3:15 PM – USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – Early signal of labor market conditions. 

Thursday, April 3: 

• 1:00 AM – AUD: RBA Gov Bullock Speaks – Potential insights into future policy directions. 

• 9:30 AM – CHF: CPI m/m – Key indicator of Swiss inflation trends. 

• 3:30 PM – USD: Unemployment Claims – Weekly indicator of job market health. 

• 5:00 PM – USD: ISM Services PMI – Reflects the performance of the US services sector. 

Friday, April 4: 

• 3:30 PM – CAD: Employment Change & Unemployment Rate – Key Canadian labor market indicators. 

• 3:30 PM – USD: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings – Crucial US labor data influencing monetary policy. 

• 6:25 PM – USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Highly anticipated for monetary policy signals. 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

GBP/USD – Daily Chart: 

GBP/USD remains range-bound near significant resistance after its recent rally. The pair is hovering around the Fibonacci resistance at 1.2959, poised to break higher if bullish momentum prevails. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 1.3014, 1.3053, 1.3103, 1.3158 

• Support: 1.2870 (recent low) 

Alternative Scenario: 

A breakdown below 1.2870 could prompt further selling, targeting deeper corrective levels. 

Impactful Events: 

• US Non-Farm Payrolls, ISM PMIs, Fed Chair Powell Speech 

AUD/USD – Daily Chart: 

AUD/USD is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle following completion of a harmonic pattern. Market participants await a clear directional break, potentially influenced by the upcoming RBA policy decision. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 0.6339, 0.6390, 0.6426, 0.6473 

• Support: 0.6257 (pattern low), 0.6187 

Alternative Scenario: 

A decisive break below 0.6257 would signal a bearish continuation, targeting recent lows and possibly deeper supports. 

Impactful Events: 

• RBA Interest Rate Decision, RBA Gov Bullock Speech, US economic data 

Errante’s Weekly Newsletter brings you critical market insights to keep you ahead in the financial world. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with Errante. 

Errante is regulated by the Seychelles Financial Services Authority (FSA) under license number [SD038].

To find out more about Errante, visit https://errante.com/.