Errante’s The Week Ahead: 24th – 28th March 2025 

Highlights of the Week: 

• Global PMI Data: Key insights into economic conditions across Europe and the UK. 

• US GDP and Core PCE: Gauging US economic strength amid rising trade tensions. 

• BoE Governor Speech: Potential signals on future UK monetary policy direction. 

Errante’s The Week Ahead: 24th – 28th March 2025 

Markets enter this week digesting recent central bank decisions where major policymakers, including the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, held rates steady amid growing economic uncertainties stemming from President Trump’s trade policies. With the Fed signalling two potential quarter-point cuts later this year, the dollar faces increased scrutiny, particularly as traders position themselves cautiously ahead of the next round of tariffs expected on April 2. 

The USD index has descended to a five-month low at 103.19, retreating significantly from January’s peak of 110.17, reflecting anxiety over trade-war-induced recession fears. Traders are expected to adopt more neutral USD positions ahead of imminent tariff announcements, adding volatility to FX markets. 

The Euro remains tightly correlated with bond spreads, notably between US and German 10-year yields, currently at 146 basis points after previously widening to 176 bps. The narrowing spread suggests a cautious stance on EUR/USD, with potential profit-taking ahead of the week’s close. 

Upcoming economic data, especially PMI figures across the Eurozone, the UK, and the US on Monday, will further illuminate economic resilience amidst trade uncertainties. Additionally, critical inflation data from Australia and the UK, and GDP and Core PCE figures from the US, will help investors assess underlying economic momentum and central bank policy implications. 

Upcoming Data and Events (GMT+2): 

Monday, March 24: 

• 10:15 AM – EUR: French Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI – Indicates early economic health of the French economy. 

• 10:30 AM – EUR: German Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI – Key measure of German economic activity and growth. 

• 11:30 AM – GBP: Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI – Provides a snapshot of the UK’s manufacturing and services sectors. 

• 3:45 PM – USD: Flash Manufacturing PMI – Offers early insights into US manufacturing & Services sectors health. 

• 8:00 PM – GBP: BoE Gov Bailey Speaks – Could hint at future monetary policy direction in the UK. 

Tuesday, March 25: 

• No High Impact Events 

Wednesday, March 26: 

• 2:30 AM – AUD: CPI y/y – Important indicator of inflationary pressures in Australia. 

• 9:00 AM – GBP: CPI y/y – Critical data for Bank of England’s interest rate decisions. 

• Tentative – GBP: Annual Budget Release – Outlines government spending and fiscal policy. 

Thursday, March 27: 

• 2:30 PM – USD: Final GDP q/q – Provides a finalized view of US economic performance. 

• 2:30 PM – USD: Unemployment Claims – A key measure of the health of the US labour market. 

Friday, March 28: 

• 9:00 AM – GBP: Retail Sales m/m – Indicates the strength of consumer spending in the UK. 

• 2:30 PM – CAD: GDP m/m – Reflects monthly economic activity in Canada. 

• 2:30 PM – USD: Core PCE Price Index m/m – Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, crucial for policy decisions. 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

USD/CAD – Daily Chart: 

USD/CAD is forming a triangle pattern within an ascending channel, signaling potential volatility. The price is consolidating around the support of the pattern’s completion point (D), and traders should watch closely for directional breakout confirmation. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 1.4520, 1.4792 

• Support: 1.4239, 1.4150 

Alternative Scenario: 

A decisive break below 1.4150 would signal further bearish pressure, targeting the channel’s lower boundary. 

Impactful Events: 

US GDP (Thu), CAD GDP (Fri) 

EUR/CHF – Daily Chart: 

EUR/CHF remains under bearish pressure after retreating from recent highs, consolidating within a tight range. The pair risks deeper corrective moves if bearish momentum persists. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 0.9601, 0.9662 

• Support: 0.9536, 0.9502, 0.9465, 0.9404 

Alternative Scenario: 

A recovery and sustained break above 0.9662 could pave the way for a retest of recent highs. 

Impactful Events: 

Eurozone PMI Data (Mon) 

Errante’s Weekly Newsletter brings you critical market insights to keep you ahead in the financial world. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with Errante. 

Errante is regulated by the Seychelles Financial Services Authority (FSA) under license number [SD038].

To find out more about Errante, visit https://errante.com/.