Errante’s The Week Ahead: 17^th – 21^st March 2025 

Highlights of the Week: 

• FOMC Meeting: Market awaits the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and economic projections. 

• BoJ and SNB Decisions: The Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank will update their monetary policy stance. 

• UK and Canada Economic Data: Retail sales, inflation, and labor market data could set the tone for GBP and CAD. 

Errante’s The Week Ahead: 17^th – 21^st March 2025

Treasuries, Gold, and the US Dollar Move in Tandem 

The recent flight to safe-haven assets eased slightly, as Treasuries gave back some gains after a strong rally in the prior session. Gold, which recently hit a record high, hovered just below the $3,000-an-ounce threshold, while the US dollar strengthened for the third consecutive day. 

However, the British pound weakened following data that showed the UK economy unexpectedly contracted at the start of 2025, raising concerns about the country’s economic trajectory. 

Market Risks and Investor Sentiment 

While the avoidance of a US government shutdown removes one source of uncertainty, broader concerns remain. Investors continue to weigh the impact of President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff policies, which have shifted Wall Street’s mood from initial optimism to heightened caution. 

Two months into Trump’s term, US stocks have lost $5 trillion in value, putting the S&P 500 on track for its fourth consecutive week of declines. 

According to a Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey, investors are currently the most bullish on Treasuries relative to stocks in at least three years, reflecting a defensive positioning in the market. 

Are We Nearing a Market Bottom? 

Despite recent turbulence, some analysts believe the sell-off may be nearing an inflection point. A new bear market is unlikely, suggesting that further declines could prompt shifts in both trade and monetary policy. 

FOMC Policy Decision & Market Expectations 

The Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday is expected to be the main driver of market volatility. Investors are watching whether the Fed maintains its 4.50% rate or hints at potential cuts later this year. With job growth slowing and the unemployment rate rising to 4.1%, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statement and the FOMC’s economic projections will be crucial in determining the dollar’s next direction. Any dovish tilt could weigh on the USD, while a more cautious Fed may support the greenback against riskier assets. 

BoJ Meeting and USD/JPY at Key Support 

The Bank of Japan’s policy decision is highly anticipated as the yen approaches the lower bound of its multi-year trend channel. While the BoJ is not expected to increase interest rate yet, recent speculation about the central bank adjusting its yield curve control could bring volatility to USD/JPY. If policymakers hint at a future shift towards higher rates, the yen could strengthen sharply. 

SNB Policy Meeting and CHF Outlook 

The Swiss National Bank will release its monetary policy assessment on Thursday. Markets expect a cut by 0.25%, but given recent inflation pressures, SNB President Thomas Jordan’s commentary on future rate adjustments will be critical for CHF pairs. A more hawkish SNB could drive CHF appreciation. 

GBP and CAD Data Releases 

The UK and Canada will release retail sales, labor market, and inflation data this week. The Bank of England is set to vote on its official bank rate, where a split decision could reflect the ongoing debate on whether the BoE should cut rates amid stagnating growth. Meanwhile, Canadian CPI and retail sales data will provide insight into consumer spending trends and BoC policy expectations. 

Looking Ahead 

While Friday’s rebound offers a much-needed boost to global markets, underlying risks remain. Investors will be closely watching China’s stimulus announcements next week, as well as developments in US fiscal and trade policy. The question now is whether this bounce marks a turning point—or just another pause in a deeper correction. 

Upcoming Data and Events (GMT+2): 

Monday, March 17: 

• 2:30 PM – USD – Core Retail Sales m/m 

• 2:30 PM – USD – Retail Sales m/m 

Tuesday, March 18: 

• 2:30 PM – CAD – CPI m/m 

• 2:30 PM – CAD – Median CPI y/y 

• 2:30 PM – CAD – Trimmed CPI y/y 

Wednesday, March 19: 

• **Tentative – JPY – BoJ Policy Rate and Monetary Policy  Statement** 

• Tentative – JPY – BoJ Press Conference 

• 8:00 PM – USD – Federal Funds Rate 

• 8:00 PM – USD – FOMC Economic Projections 

• 8:00 PM – USD – FOMC Statement 

• 8:30 PM – USD – FOMC Press Conference 

• 11:45pm - NZD - GDP q/q     

Thursday, March 20: 

• 2:30 AM – AUD – Employment Change 

• 2:30 AM – AUD – Unemployment Rate 

• 9:00 AM – GBP – Claimant Count Change 

• 10:30 AM – CHF – SNB Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Assessment 

• 11:00 Am – CHF - SNB Press Conference 

• 2:00 PM – GBP – Official Bank Rate and Monetary Policy Summary 

• 2:30 PM – GBP – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks 

• 2:30 PM – USD – Unemployment Claims 

• 6:50 PM – CAD – BoC Gov Macklem Speaks 

Friday, March 21: 

• 2:30 PM – CAD – Core Retail Sales m/m 

• 2:30 PM – CAD – Retail Sales m/m 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

USD/JPY – Daily Chart Analysis 

USD/JPY is testing a critical support level within its three-year rising channel. The currency pair is at 148.89, nearing a confluence of support zones, including the 127.2% and 141.4% Fibonacci extensions at 145.85 and 144.39, respectively. With the BoJ meeting this week, a break below these levels could accelerate downside momentum toward the lower channel boundary. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 152.34, 158.87 

• Support: 148.63, 145.85, 144.39 

Alternative Scenario: If the BoJ signals no immediate policy changes, USD/JPY could rebound towards 152.34 before facing renewed selling pressure. 

Impactful Events: 

• BoJ Policy Decision (Tentative – March 19) 

• FOMC Meeting (March 19) 

GBP/CHF – Weekly Chart Analysis 

GBP/CHF has broken out of a long-term triangle formation, indicating bullish momentum. The pair surpassed the previous high of 1.1438 and is now aiming for Fibonacci extension targets. With the BoE rate decision on Thursday, traders will watch for potential confirmations of further gains. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 1.1478, 1.1521, 1.1584, 1.1702 

• Support: 1.1277, 1.1087 

Alternative Scenario: If the BoE delivers a more dovish message, GBP/CHF could retest 1.1277 before continuing its bullish breakout. 

Impactful Events: 

• BoE Rate Decision (March 20) 

• SNB Policy Meeting (March 20) 

Errante’s Weekly Newsletter brings you critical market insights to keep you ahead in the financial world. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with Errante. 

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