Errante’s The Week Ahead: 12^th – 16^th May 2025 

Weekly Highlights: 

• U.S. inflation in focus as CPI, PPI, and retail sales dominate midweek. 

• Australia jobs and wages data may shape AUD direction. 

• GBP/CAD in breakout mode as traders eye GDP and Bailey’s speech. 

Errante’s The Week Ahead: 12^th – 16^th May 2025 

Markets enter the week on a mixed footing as strong earnings and equity rallies contrast with simmering trade war rhetoric. President Trump’s remarks about imposing an 80% tariff on Chinese goods triggered temporary panic before optimism resumed with news of upcoming trade talks. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to trade on the defensive amid Fed cut bets, while gold retreated from all-time highs due to profit-taking and firmer yields. 

In Europe, the DAX hit record highs as risk sentiment improved, yet the EUR struggles to find momentum ahead of U.S. inflation reports. The Canadian dollar remains vulnerable as last week’s jobs rebound failed to lift sentiment. Looking ahead, CPI data from the U.S., BOE Governor Bailey’s remarks, UK GDP, and Australian employment will be major volatility events. 

Bottom Line 

This week is all about inflation and employment data from the U.S., UK, and Australia. As equities climb and the dollar softens, forex traders should prepare for higher volatility around midweek. U.S. CPI and retail sales may reshape Fed expectations, while GBP pairs react to GDP and BoE commentary. Stay agile and tuned in with Errante Academy. 

Upcoming Data and Events (GMT+3): 

Monday, 12^th May  

• No high-impact events. 

Tuesday, 13^th May 

• 9:00am – GBP Claimant Count Change: Previous 18.7K, job market tightening expected. 

• 3:30pm – USD Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, CPI y/y: critical for Fed rate expectations. 

• 6:00pm – GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks: Forward guidance will be key after last week’s rate cut. 

Wednesday, 14^th May 

• 4:30am – AUD Wage Price Index q/q: Forecast 0.80%, indicating sustained wage pressures. 

Thursday, 15^th May 

• 4:30am – AUD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate: Forecast 25.6K and 4.10%; upside surprise could lift AUD. 

• 9:00am – GBP GDP m/m: Previous 0.5%; signals economic resilience or stagnation. 

• 3:30pm – USD Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims: Cluster of inflation and consumption data to shape USD trend. 

• 3:40pm – USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks: May address inflation dynamics and policy trajectory. 

Friday, 16^th May 

• 5:00pm – USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations: Key for near-term inflation outlook and consumer resilience. 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

GBP/CAD – Daily Chart 

Technical Outlook: 

GBP/CAD is pushing against the 1.8500 handle and testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March-April decline. RSI above 55 and a flattening MACD histogram signal strengthening bullish bias. A breakout above 1.8600 opens room to 1.8684 and 1.8790. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 1.8600, 1.8684, 1.8790 

• Support: 1.8483, 1.8293 

Bias:  

Bullish above 1.8480; sustained move above 1.8600 confirms upside breakout. 

EUR/GBP – Daily Chart 

Technical Outlook: 

EUR/GBP is consolidating below 0.8500, with price structure forming a descending triangle. Support at 0.8475 remains intact but vulnerable. A break below could expose 0.8441 and 0.8418. RSI near 45 and MACD flat suggest indecision. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 0.8502, 0.8540 

• Support: 0.8475, 0.8441, 0.8418 

Bias:  

Bearish below 0.8500; neutral between 0.8475-0.8500 range. 

Errante’s Weekly Newsletter brings you critical market insights to keep you ahead in the financial world. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with Errante. 

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